最低收购价政策对粮食价格影响效应研究--以东北地区玉米及大豆为例  

Research on the Effect of Minimum Purchase Price Policy on Grain Price--A Case Study on the Corn and Soybean in Northeast China

作　　者：刘丽[1,2] LIU Li

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018 [2]山东省临邑县临邑镇人民政府,山东德州251500

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第3期64-70,146,共8页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：根据农业供给侧结构改革的推进,农业价改政策继续集中于玉米和大豆两个品种之上的可能性极大。粮食最低收购价作为中国农业支持政策的一项重点,其政策的实施对粮食价格究竟有何作用一直是学者们常探讨的问题。文章利用stata15软件,通过DID模型和平衡面板数据模型对玉米及大豆两种粮食价格在最低收购价政策实施前后的年度数据进行政策效果讨论。研究结果显示,托市收购前后,实施区与非实施区两种粮食价格的差异有所缩减,而不同粮食作物受政策实施规模、力度及产品特性的影响,政策实施效果有所差异。粮食最低收购价对一般品种(如玉米)存在明显的托市效应,而对于外贸依存度较高、市场相对复杂的粮食品种(如大豆),其政策效果可能会被削弱。According to the promotion of agricultural supply side structural reform,it is highly likely that the agricultural price reform policy will continue to focus on the two varieties of corn and soybean.As a key point of China's agricultural support policy,the minimum purchase price of grain has always been a question that scholars often discuss.This paper uses stata15 software,through did model and balanced panel data model,to discuss the annual data of corn and soybean prices before and after the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy.The results show that before and after the purchase,the difference in the prices of the two kinds of grain in the implementation area and the non-implementation area has been reduced,while the effect of the policy implementation is different for different grain crops affected by the scale,strength and product characteristics of the policy implementation.The minimum purchase price of grain has obvious market supporting effect on general varieties(such as corn),while for grain varieties(such as soybean)with high dependence on foreign trade and relatively complex market,its policy effect may be weakened.

关 键 词：粮食最低收购价 临时储备政策 双差分模型 平衡面板数据 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7