吉林西部风能太阳能资源互补特性研究  

An Analysis of Complementarity of Wind and Solar Energy Resources in West Jilin

作　　者：王捷儒 姚锦烽[1] 朴哲勇 李海燕 WANG Jieru;YAO Jinfeng;PU Zheyong;LI Haiyan(China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Grid Jilin Electric Power Company Limited,Changchun 130021,Jilin,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [2]国网吉林省电力有限公司,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《高原气象》2022年第4期1086-1095,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2021MS04002);风云三号03批气象卫星工程地面应用系统气候资源评估分系统项目。

摘　　要：风能太阳能资源在时间和季节上具有波动性和不稳定性,这为电网调度带来压力,成为阻碍清洁能源并网的巨大难题。本文利用吉林西部相邻风电场和光伏电站完整一年的实测资料,通过选取变异系数作为监测资源稳定性的衡量指标,分别考察两种资源在不同利用比例下叠加结果的稳定性,从日变化和月变化角度分析其互补特性。另外本文应用三种典型的反映变量同步或相反变化特性的相关性指标即Pearson相关系数、Spearman秩相关系数和Kendall秩相关系数,辅助说明本文所用稳定性指标的合理性。结果表明:吉林西部风能、太阳资源的日变化相较于月变化更具互补性,通过一定资源利用比例的调整可以大幅提高叠加后的资源稳定性。本文仅通过一个地区一年的实测资料,探讨建立了一种风能太阳能资源互补特性的评价方法,研究结论可为电网同时调度两种资源提供参考。Wind and solar energy resources show a daily and seasonal fluctuation trend,which puts high pressure on grid dispatching and has become a huge problem that hinders the connection of clean energy to the grid.Based on the whole year measured data of adjacent wind farms and photovoltaic power stations in the west of Jilin,this paper selected coefficient of variation as the metrics,to investigate the stability of transmitted power of the two resources under different utilization ratios,and analyzed their complementary nature from the perspective of diurnal variation and monthly variation.Three typical correlation indexes,Pearson correlation coefficient,Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient,were used to illustrate the rationality of the stability indexes.The results showed that the diurnal variation of wind and solar resources is more complementary than the monthly variation,and the stability of superimposed resources can be greatly improved by adjusting the utilization ratio of certain resources.In this paper,an measurement of the complementarity of wind and solar energy resources is established based on measured data of a single year in one region.The research conclusions can provide references for dispatching the two kinds of resources simultaneously.

关 键 词：风能资源 太阳能资源 风光互补 变异系数 稳定性 

分 类 号：P413.21[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]