青海湖北岸主要牧草物候特征及预测模型研究  

PHENOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION MODELS OF MAJOR FORAGEGRASSES IN ALPINE GRASSLANDS ALONG THENORTHERNCOASTOFTHELAKE

作　　者：金显玲 马扶林 刘洁 魏永林 JIN Xian-ling(Haibei Pastoral Meteorology Experimental Station of Qinghai Province,Xihai Qinghai 810200,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海西海812200

出　　处：《青海草业》2022年第3期26-35,39,共11页Qinghai Prataculture

摘　　要：为探究气候变暖背景下青海湖北岸生态功能区天然牧草生长发育与气候条件的关系,利用海北牧业气象试验站1997~2019年气象和相应的牧草物候观测数据,分析气象条件对天然牧草生长发育带来的综合影响,并建立预测模型进行发育期预测。结果表明:(1)环湖北岸地区近22a来禾本牧草西北针茅、冷地早熟禾和落草各发育期均呈现出普遍推迟趋势;且各牧草虽返青期均推迟但黄枯期相对而言推迟的更明显,禾本科牧草生长季长度呈延长趋势,其余牧草生长季长度呈缩短趋势。(2)近22a来环湖北岸地区年平均气温、年最高气温、年最低气温总体上均呈极显著的上升趋势,年降水量以每41.0mm/10a的速度增加,年日照时数却以每193.0h/10a的速度极显著减少,各层的平均地温在年与季节尺度上均呈现不同程度的升高趋势。(3)利用R语言统计构建包含多种气象因子的物候期预报模型,通过0.05的显著性检验,能够较好的预测牧草的物候期,对了解和掌握当年牧草生长季长短,合理安排牧事活动具有较好的参考意义。In order to explore the relationship between the growth and development of natural forage grass and climate conditions in the north bank ecological function area of Qinghai Lake under the background of climate warming,the comprehensive impact of meteorological conditions on grassland growth and development was analyzed by using the meteorological and pasture observation data from 1997 to 2019,and the prediction model of development period was established.The results showed that:(1)the developmental stages of the grasses Stipasareptanavar.krylovii、PoacrymophilaKeng、Koeleriacristata were generally delayed in the north shore of the lake in the past 22a;and although the greening stage of each grass was delayed,the yellowing stage was relatively more delayed or advanced.(2)In the past 22 years,the annual mean temperature,annual maximum and annual minimum of the northern shore of the lagoon showed a highly significant upward trend,the annual precipitation increased at a rate of 41.0 mm per decade,while the annual sunshine hours decreased at a rate of 193.0 h per decade,and the average ground temperature of each layer showed different degrees of increase on the annual and seasonal scales.(3)passed the significance test of 0.05,can be better predict the developmental period of forage.The model of each developmental stage constructed with multiple meteorological factors can predict the developmental stage of forage better.

关 键 词：青海湖北岸 发育期 气象条件 预测模型 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]