基于GM(1,1)法的吉林省“十四五”电力需求量预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Electricity Demand in Jilin Province"14th Five-Year Plan"Based on GM(1,1)Method

作　　者：刘颖[1] 王玉[1] 于凤洋 林晓晟 Liu Ying;Wang Yu;Yu Fengyang;Lin Xiaosheng(Jilin Provincial Academy of Environmental Sciences,Changchun,Jilin 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省环境科学研究院,吉林长春130000

出　　处：《绿色科技》2022年第18期232-236,共5页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：用电量预测是电力部门规划的必要内容,对于电力工业发展的战略研究、资源优化配置等具有重要影响,用电量需求的预测对于加快煤炭减量步伐、合理规划可再生能源替代,最终实现电力行业碳达峰碳中和目标的实现,具有积极作用。以2014~2021年吉林省全社会各产业及居民用电量为基础数据,利用灰色模型GM(1,1)对“十四五”用电量进行预测,并对预测结果进行了检验。预测结果显示:后验差比值在0.45以内,相对误差基本控制在20%以内,由此可见灰色模型GM(1,1)对于“十四五”的全社会用电量预测结果精度较高。Electricity consumption prediction is the necessary content of power sector planning,which has an important influence on electric power industry development strategy research and optimal allocation of resources.The prediction of electricity consumption demand will have a positive effect on accelerating the steps of reducing coal,rationally planning alternatives to renewable energy and finally achieving the goal of peak carbon neutrality in the power industry.This paper is based on the basic data of electricity consumption of all industries and residents in Jilin province from 2014 to 2021.The gray model GM(1,1)is used to predict the electricity consumption of the"14th five-year plan",and the prediction results are tested.The prediction results show that the posterior difference ratio is within 0.45,and the relative error is basically controlled within 20%.The grey model GM(1,1)has a high accuracy in predicting the electricity consumption of the whole society during the"14th five-year plan".

关 键 词：预测 灰色模型GM(1 1) 全社会用电量 碳达峰 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]