一次多类型降雨组成的暴雨成因及预报偏差分析  

Analysis on cause and prediction deviation of a rainstorm process composed of multiple types of rainfall

作　　者：翟舒楠 黄伊曼 刘国忠 陈见 黄荣 Zhai Shunan;Huang Yiman;Liu Guozhong;Chen Jian;Huang Rong(Guangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2022年第3期83-87,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2022M09);广西极端暴雨形成机理及预报技术研究创新团队项目。

摘　　要：2021年5月12—13日广西出现了一次多类型降雨组成的暴雨过程,成因复杂,预报偏差大,有必要进行诊断分析。利用多源气象资料进行多尺度诊断分析,结果表明:(1)此次过程是在高空槽、低层切变线、偏南急流及地面弱冷空气共同作用下发生的,包含冷锋、静止锋及暖区三种降雨类型。(2)锋面上对流不断生消发展、移动缓慢及列车效应导致桂东北锋面暴雨。锋前中尺度对流系统移速慢、质心低及降水效率高造成桂南暖区暴雨。(3)模式对锋面对流预报偏差是降水偏差的一个重要原因,模式对越南北部带状降水的预报可作为暖区对流初生的一个指标。A rainstorm process consisting of multiple types of rainfall occurred in Guangxi from 12 to 13May, 2021. Owing to the complexity and large forecast deviations of this rainstorn, it is necessary to carry out multi-scale diagnostic analysis based on multi-source data. The results show that:(1)The process occurred under the combined effect of high-altitude trough, low-level shear line, southerly jet, and weak cold air on the ground.The rainstorm includes three types of rainstorm: cold front rainstorm, stationary front rainstorm and warm-area rainstorm.(2)The continuous growth, disappearance, development, slow movement and train effect of convection on the front are the main causes of the frontal rainstorm in the northeast of Guangxi. The slow-moving mesoscale convective system, low center of convection and high precipitation efficiency are the main causes of the warmarea rainstorm in southern Guangxi.(3)The forecast deviation of the frontal convection in the numerical model is an important reason for the precipitation deviation, and the banded precipitation in northern Vietnam is an indication of the convective initiation in the warm areas.

关 键 词：锋面暴雨 暖区暴雨 多尺度分析 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]