广西8月一次大范围暴雨过程的预报检验分析  

Analysis on forecast and inspection of a large-scale heavy rain process in August in Guangxi

作　　者：邓汝伊[1] 蒋健[1] 梁栋 Deng Ruyi;Jiang Jian;Liang Dong(Baise Meteorological Bureau,Baise Guangxi 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]百色市气象局,广西百色533000

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2022年第3期98-102,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：百色市气象科研计划项目(百气科2021M01)。

摘　　要：利用中央气象台、广西壮族自治区气象台、欧洲中心和CMA模式等主客观预报产品对广西2021年8月一次大范围暴雨过程预报进行检验。结果表明:(1)本次暴雨过程发生在低层切变线、季风槽和地面弱冷空气的广西汛期暴雨经典天气系统配置下,影响范围大、过程雨量大、雨势强、桂北-桂南双雨带特征明显。(2)各家预报产品对系统性降水把握较好,但对季风槽降水考虑不足。(3)欧洲中心和CMA-GFS对天气形势的预报具备稳定性和延续性,均能较准确预报天气系统影响时间节点。(4)CMA-3KM、CMA-SH和CMA-GD模式产品对双雨带特征反应较明显,强降水落区略有偏差,有空报现象,其余各家预报产品均出现不同程度的漏报现象。Using the subjective and objective forecast products such as the Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangxi Observatory, the European Center and CMA model, a forecast test was carried out for the large-scale heavy rain process in Guangxi in August, 2021. The conclusions show that:(1) This rainstorn process occurred under the typical configuration of the weather systems of heavy rain in the flood season in Guangxi,including the low-level shear line, monsoon trough and the weak cold air on the ground. The process had the characteristics of the large influence range, the heavy accumulated precipitation, the strong rain intnesity and the obvious characteristics of the double rain belt in northern and southern Guangxi.(2) Each forecast product had a certain ability to forecast systematic precipitation, with slightly different degrees of deviation, and all of them had insufficient consideration of monsoon trough precipitation.(3) The forecast of the weather situation by the European Center and the CMA-GFS products were stable and continuous, and both can more accurately predict the time node of the impact of the weather system.(4) In the precipitation forecast, the CMA-3km, CMA-SH and CMA-GD model products had obvious responses to the characteristics of double rain belts, and there is a slight deviation in the heavy precipitation area, and there were some empty reports;the other forecast products had different degree of underreporting.

关 键 词：暴雨 数值预报 检验 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]