昆明市2017—2019年大气臭氧污染对人群非意外死亡影响的时间序列研究  

Time-series analysis on health effects of atmospheric ozone exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming during 2017-2019

作　　者：陈皓 李旭[1] 苏晓梅[1] 韩瑞萍[1] 董丽琼[1] CHEN Hao;LI Xu;SU Xiaomei;HAN Ruiping;DONG Liqiong(Environmental Hygiene Division,Kunming Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming,Yunnan 650228,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科,云南昆明650228

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2022年第8期883-889,共7页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：昆明市科技计划项目(昆科计字2019-1-S-25318000001720号)。

摘　　要：[背景]昆明市属于高原城市,日照充足,紫外线强度大,辐射强,近年来臭氧(O_(3))污染逐渐成为大气污染的首要问题。[目的]探讨昆明市大气O_(3)暴露对人群非意外死亡的健康影响。[方法]收集2017—2019年昆明市气象(平均温度、平均相对湿度、平均气压、平均风速)、大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、CO、O_(3))、人群非意外死亡的资料,采用广义相加模型进行时间序列分析O_(3)浓度对居民每日非意外死亡人数的当日(lag0)、单日(lag1~lag3)及平均滞后效应(lag01~lag03),并对性别、年龄进行分层分析,分暖、冷季进行季节分析。[结果]2017—2019年O_(3)-8 h平均浓度为(84.3±32.3)μg·m^(-3)。O_(3)-8 h浓度每升高10μg·m^(-3):lag0时全人群非意外死亡风险增加0.70%(95%CI:0.11%~1.29%),lag01和lag02时增加0.79%(95%CI:0.14%~1.44%)、0.75%(95%CI:0.08%~1.43%);女性非意外死亡风险lag2和lag02时增加0.80%(95%CI:0.08%~1.53%)、1.05%(95%CI:0.09%~2.03%);>65岁人群lag0、lag01、lag02时非意外死亡风险增加0.82%(95%CI:0.16%~1.48%)、0.93%(95%CI:0.20%~1.67%)、0.96%(95%CI:0.20%~1.73%);暖季居民非意外死亡风险lag0时增加0.91%(95%CI:0.12%~1.70%),lag01和lag02时增加0.98%(95%CI:0.12%~1.86%)、1.00%(95%CI:0.07%~1.93%)。在引入PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO后,O_(3)暴露水平对居民非意外死亡影响的变化无统计学意义。[结论]O_(3)暴露水平的提高会增加昆明市居民非意外死亡的风险,且存在滞后效应,>65岁人群和女性可能为敏感人群,暖季时人群对O_(3)暴露可能更敏感。[Background]Kunming is a plateau city with sufficient sunshine,high ultraviolet intensity,and strong radiation.In recent years,ozone(O_(3))pollution has gradually become the primary problem of air pollution in the city.[Objective]To evaluate the health effects of atmospheric O_(3) exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming.[Methods]The data of meteorological variables(average temperature,average relative humidity,average air pressure,and average wind speed),air pollutants(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),CO,and O_(3))and non-accidental deaths(NAD)of residents were collected in Kunming from 2017 to 2019.A generalized additive model was adopted to conduct time-series analyses on the current-day(lagO),single-day(lag1-lag3),and cumulative lag(lag01-lag03)effects of O_(3) on NAD;furthermore,hierarchical analyses by gender,age,and season(warm and cold)were conducted.[Results]The average concentration of O_(3)-8h from 2017 to 2019 was(84.3±32.3)μg·m^(−3).For every 10μg·m^(−3) increase in O_(3)-8h concentration,the NAD risks of lag0,lag01,and lag02 of total population increased by 0.70%(95%CI:0.11%-1.29%)0.79%(95%CI:0.14%-1.44%),and 0.75%(95%CI:0.08%-1.43%),respectively;for women,the NAD risks of lag2 and lag02 increased by 0.80%(95%CI:0.08%-1.53%)and 1.05%(95%CI:0.09%-2.03%)respectively;for the residents over the age of 65,the associated NAD risks of lag0,lag01,and lag02 increased by 0.82%(95%CI:0.16%-1.48%),0.93%(95%CI:0.20%-1.67%),and 0.96%(95%CI:0.20%-1.73%),respectively;in the warm season,the NAD risks of lag0,lag01,and lag02 increased by 0.91%(95%CI:0.12%-1.70%),0.98%(95%CI:0.12%-1.86%),and 1.00%(95%CI:0.07%-1.93%),respectively;After introducing PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),and CO to the model,the effects of O_(3) exposure level on resident’s NAD was not statistically significant.[Conclusion]An increase of O_(3) exposure level associates with an increase of NAD risk in residents,and there is a lag effect.Residents over the age of 65,women,and all residents in warm season may be more sensitive to O_(3) exposur

关 键 词：臭氧 昆明 暴露 时间序列 非意外死亡 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]