短颈剑线虫在中国的潜在地理分布预测及入侵风险评估  

Predication of potential geographical distribution of Xiphinema brevicollum and its invasion risk to China

作　　者：吕文刚 沈阳 李新芳 王卫芳 秦誉嘉[3] Lü Wengang;Shen Yang;Li Xinfang;Wang Weifang;Qin Yujia(Integrated Technology Center of Foshan Customs House,Shunde 528303,China;Technology Center of Guangzhou Customs District;College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University)

机构地区：[1]佛山海关综合技术中心,广东顺德528303 [2]广州海关技术中心 [3]中国农业大学植物保护学院

出　　处：《植物检疫》2022年第5期77-83,共7页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：广州海关科技计划项目(2020GZCK-005)。

摘　　要：短颈剑线虫是近3年广州口岸从进境种苗中截获频次最高的检疫性线虫,它不仅直接危害植物根系,还传播番茄环斑病毒造成更大危害。为明确短颈剑线虫在中国的潜在地理分布及入侵风险,本文采用生态位最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测其潜在地理分布,用ArcGIS优化结果,并采用多指标综合评判法量化分析其入侵风险。结果表明,短颈剑线虫在中国的适生范围广,适生总面积约为383.9万km^(2),约占中国陆地面积的39.9%。其中,高度适生区面积约95.4万km^(2),占全国陆地面积的9.9%,在长江以南的地区集中成片,主要包括广东、广西、贵州、云南中部和东部、四川盆地、海南、台湾、西藏东南、江西南部、浙江南部、湖南南部和西部等地区。按照有害生物多指标综合评判法,对15项评估指标进行赋值,计算短颈剑线虫的入侵风险综合评价值R为2.07,属高度危险,检疫部门应加强检疫,严防其传入。Xiphinema brevicollum is an important quarantine nematode with the highest frequency of interception from imported seedling at Guangzhou port in the past three years. It can not only damage the roots of plant directly,but also spread tomato ring spot virus(ToRSV) leading to further damage. In order to clarify the potential geographical distribution and invasion risk of X. brevicollum in China,MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to analyzed its suitable range and degree in China,and the risk level of its invasion to China was quantitatively analyzed by using the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that X. brevicollum had a wide range of suitability in China,and the area of suitable region was about 3 839 000 km^(2),accounting for 39.9% of land area of China. Among them,the high suitable area covered about 954 000 km^(2),accounting for 9.9% of land area of China. The high suitable region was mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River,including Guangdong,Guangxi,Guizhou,middle and east of Yunnan,Sichuan Basin,Hainan,Taiwan,southeast of Tibet,south of Jiangxi,south of Zhejiang,south and west of Hunan,et al. According to the method of multi-index comprehensive evaluation,15 evaluation indexes were assigned and the calculated comprehensive evaluation value of risk(R) was 2.07 for X. brevicollum,and the invading risk to China was high,and quarantine measures should be taken to prevent its introduction.

关 键 词：短颈剑线虫 潜在地理分布 入侵风险 最大熵模型 ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]