认识减缓气候变化最新进展科学助力碳中和  

Understanding the latest progress in mitigating climate change and facilitating carbon neutrality

作　　者：袁佳双 张永香[1] 陈迎[2] 于金媛[3] 王红丽[4] YUAN Jia-Shuang;ZHANG Yong-Xiang;CHEN Ying;YU Jin-Yuan;WANG Hong-Li(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Ecological Civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京100710 [3]西藏大学,拉萨850000 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第5期523-530,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“碳中和视域下中国参与全球气候治理的制度性挑战及对策研究”(21AZD123);生态环境部应对气候变化国际合作和履约项目《巴黎协定实施后续相关能力建设问题研究》(2022—2023);中国气象局重点创新团队“气候变化检测、影响和应对”(CMA2022ZD03);“Public Communication on IPCC Sixth Assessment Report”项目成果,该项目由能源基金会支持。

摘　　要：政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布了第六次评估报告第三工作组报告《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》。报告归纳和总结了第五次评估报告发布以来的最新减缓气候变化的研究进展,将为国际社会进一步了解气候变化减缓行动、系统转型、追求可持续发展提供重要的参考依据。报告指出1850—2019年人类活动已累积排放了约2.4万亿t CO_(2),其中58%是1990年前排放的。未来想要控制全球的温升水平就必需立即采取减缓行动。在低和最低排放情景下,化石能源均需大幅减少;可再生能源将是未来能源供应的主体;实现碳中和需要依赖负排放技术和增加碳汇。技术进步是助力全球应对气候变化的关键条件之一。加速和公平的气候行动对可持续发展至关重要。报告结论再次表明中国碳中和目标符合《巴黎协定》低于2℃并努力实现1.5℃温升目标的减缓路径。未来我国应围绕报告中涉及的国家核心关切和重点内容加强专题研究。在加强科学解读和有效使用报告结论的同时,更需主动参与IPCC科学评估进程,积极贡献中国智慧,为我国气候治理理念的国际传播贡献力量。The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)released the report of Working Group Ⅲ of the Sixth Assessment Report“climate change 2022:mitigating climate change”.The report accessed and summarized the latest research progress on climate change mitigation since the release of the Fifth Assessment Report,which will provide an important reference for the international community to further understand climate change mitigation actions,system transformation,and the pursuit of sustainable development.The report pointed out that human activities had cumulatively emitted about 2.4 trillion tons of COfrom 1850 to 2019,of which 58% was emitted before 1990.In order to control the level of global temperature rise in the future,deep and immediate mitigation actions are required.In both low and minimum emission scenarios,fossil energy needs to be greatly reduced;renewable energy will be the mainstay of future energy supply;achieving carbon neutrality requires relying on negative emission technologies and increasing carbon sinks.Technological progress is one of the key conditions for helping the world combat climate change.Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development.The report’s conclusions once again show that China’s carbon neutrality target is in line with the mitigation path of the Paris Agreement’s temperature rise target of less than 2℃ and striving to achieve 1.5℃.In the future,China should strengthen special research programs on the national concerns and key contents covered in the report.While strengthening scientific interpretation and effective use of the report’s conclusions,it is also necessary to actively participate in the IPCC scientific assessment process,actively contribute Chinese wisdom,and contribute to the international dissemination of Chinese climate governance concepts.

关 键 词：IPCC WGⅢ 排放现状 减缓路径 技术方法 应对行动 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] D996.9[政治法律—环境与资源保护法学]