基于运行场景的民用无人机地面撞击风险研究  

Study on ground impact risk of UAS based on operational scenarios

作　　者：齐福强[1] QI Fuqiang(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2022年第10期17-20,31,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：中国民航大学教育教学改革与研究项目(2000550729)。

摘　　要：基于运行风险视角,明确无人机运行场景概念及划分维度,进而确定风险可能度和危害度2个维度的风险因素。运用灰色理论确定环境因素、管理因素、遮蔽保护能力等对无人机运行风险影响系数;分别构建运行风险可能度和危害度评估模型,最终确立以地面撞击风险事件死亡人数为指标的无人机地面撞击运行风险评估模型。在不同运行场景下,各类无人机运行风险度可跨越4~5个数量级,为达到相应的安全目标水平,在无人机研制和运行中需根据其运行场景进行相应的控制与管理。From the perspective of operational risk,the concept of UAS operational scenario is defined and its dimensions are divided,and the risk factors are determined in two dimensions of probability and hazard. The gray theory is applied to determine the influence coefficients of environmental factors,management factors and shelter protection capacity on the risk of UAV operation;the operational risk likelihood degree and hazard degree assessment models are constructed respectively,and the UAV ground impact operational risk assessment model with the number of fatalities in ground impact risk events as indicators is finally established. Under different operational scenarios,the operation risk degree of UAS may span 4~5 orders of magnitude. In order to achieve the corresponding safety target level,the development and operation of UAS should be controlled and managed according to its operational scenarios.

关 键 词：无人机系统 运行风险 地面撞击 运行场景 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]