地方政府债务、经济发展与风险预警研究  

Research on local government debt,economic development and early risk warning

作　　者：聂颖[1] 郭艳娇 NIE Ying;GUO Yan-jiao(College of International Business,Shenyang Normal University,Shenyang 110034,China;Liaoning Public Finance Research Institute,Shenyang 110031,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳师范大学国际商学院,沈阳110034 [2]辽宁财政科学研究所,沈阳110031

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期426-433,共8页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L16AJY013);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学项目(WJC202019,WJC202023)。

摘　　要：地方政府债务在促进地方经济发展中发挥着重要作用,随着我国地方政府债务规模不断扩大,债务风险不断累积,正确处理地方政府债务与经济发展的关系、防范化解地方政府债务风险,逐渐成为影响未来财政稳定和经济安全的重要环节。地方政府债务扩张机制、经济效应以及风险防范等问题,成为学术研究和政策调节的重点。立足现有文献,分析地方政府债务持续扩张的核心驱动因素、地方政府债务与经济发展的关系以及地方政府债务风险识别与预警的发展趋势。以此为基础,提出优化地方政府债务运行机制,充分发挥其对地方经济增长的正向推动作用,强化经济发展过程中地方政府债务风险测度与动态预警管理,按照理性增长、优化结构、注重质量的发展方向,实现国民经济的良性可持续发展。Local government debt plays an important role in promoting local economic development. With the continuous expansion of the scale of local government debt and the continuous accumulation of debt risk, correctly handling the relationship between local government debt and economic development, preventing and resolving local government debt risk have gradually become an important link affecting future financial stability and economic security. The expansion mechanism, economic effect and risk prevention of local government debt have become the focus of academic research and policy regulation. Based on the existing literature, analyzed are the core driving factors of the continuous expansion of local government debt, the relationship between local government debt and economic development, and the development trend of local government debt risk identification and early warning. On this basis, it is proposed that the operation mechanism of local government debt should be optimized, its positive role in promoting local economic growth should be given full play, the risk measurement and dynamic early warning management of local government debt should be strengthened in the process of economic development, the development direction should be followed of rational growth, optimized structure and attention to quality, and the benign and sustainable development of national economy can be realized.

关 键 词：地方政府 政府债务 经济发展 债务风险 风险预警 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]