中长期电力负荷变权重组合预测模型应用分析  

Application and Analysis of Medium and Long Term Power Load Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model

作　　者：孙广强 宋林 胡鑫 SUN Guang-qiang;SONG Lin;HU Xin(China Power Construction Group Henan Electric Power Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450007,China;Pingdingshan Nylon City Construction Investment Co.,Ltd.,Pingdingshan 467000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团河南省电力勘测设计院有限公司,郑州450007 [2]平顶山尼龙城建设投资有限公司,平顶山467000

出　　处：《价值工程》2022年第29期130-132,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：针对电力负荷变权组合预测中权重难以确定,本文引入了模糊变权重组合预测模型,该模型利用预测误差绝对平均值、预测误差绝对累加来确定各单项预测模型的权重,引入“近大远小”策略、冗余检验原则,实现组合预测模型筛选。应用结果分析表明,变权重组合预测模型在中长期电力负荷预测结果的精度较高,实用性较好。In view of the difficulty in determining the weight in the variable weight combination forecasting of power load,this paper introduces the fuzzy variable weight combination forecasting model,which uses the absolute average value of forecasting errors and the absolute accumulation of forecasting errors to determine the weight of each single forecasting model,and introduces the"near large far small"strategy and redundancy test principle to realize the screening of combined forecasting models.The analysis of application results shows that the variable weight combination forecasting model has higher accuracy and better practicability in medium and long-term power load forecasting.

关 键 词：中长期负荷 组合预测 模糊变权重 冗余校验 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]