北极东北航道对经由大连港货物贸易的影响研究  

The Impact of Opening of Northeast Course on Goods Trade via Dalian Port

作　　者：魏巍 张芳 张大龙 WEI Wei;ZHANG Fang;ZHANG Dalong(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116014,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116014

出　　处：《中国航海》2022年第3期65-71,79,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：辽宁省科技厅2021年软科学项目“辽宁省高技术产业FDI技术溢出对产业自主创新的影响”(2021JH4/10100028)。

摘　　要：北极东北航道的开通使东北亚与北欧的海运距离大大缩减,在此机遇下,分析通航对大连东北亚航运中心的货物贸易运输量的影响,具有极为显著的意义。以北极东北航道通航为背景,以大连港贸易发展趋势为研究基础,利用引力模型及对比分析法对海运距离缩减带来的贸易增长进行定量分析,并对北极东北航道沿线国家的贸易潜力进行测算,得出北极东北航道通航将会增加经由大连港的贸易量的结论,最后提出机遇之下的相关策略。Opening of Northeast Course makes the distance between North⁃East Asia and North Europe much shorter,which has great impact on Dalian Port,China.The gravity model and contrastive analysis are used to quantitatively analyze possible trade growth of Dalian Port due to decrease of the distance.The potential trade volume of countries along Northeast Course is estimated,which shows that great increase of trade volume via Dalian port is expected.The strategy to taking the advantage of Northeast Course opening is suggested.

关 键 词：北极东北航道 大连港 东北亚航运中心 引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：U6-9[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]