基于CERES数据分析中国云对地表太阳辐射影响特征  

CHRACTERISTICS OF SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION AND CLOUD FRACTION IN CHINA BASED ON CERES

作　　者：秦放 李登宣 丁煌 周海 Qin Fang;Li Dengxuan;Ding Huang;Zhou Hai(China Electric Power Research Institute Co.(Nanjing),Nanjing 210003,China;State Key Laboratory of Control and Operation of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems(China Electric Power Research Institute),Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,南京210003 [2]新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京100192

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2022年第9期8-14,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1502800);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20210046)。

摘　　要：用于地面光伏发电的太阳辐射资源受到云影响所产生的变化,由于受到观测方式限制而对其特征及关联性探究不足。针对该问题,利用CERES卫星观测时空数据,对2001—2018年中国大陆地区云对地表太阳辐射量影响特征进行分析,利用不同高度云量与云太阳辐射强迫时空分布特点,讨论云影响的太阳辐射差异对光伏出力预计影响,并通过各高度云量趋势变化与云太阳辐射强迫关联关系给出相应太阳辐射资源与光伏出力的趋势变化估计,分析云主导的太阳辐射趋势变化成因,以期为未来新能源资源评估、光伏建设规划和电力优化调度等提供支撑与参考。The solar radiation resources for photovoltaic power generation are generally affected by cloud. It is insufficient to explore the characteristics of solar radiation resources due to the limitation of traditional observation method. In order to solve this problem,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of surface solar radiative cloud forcing in China from 2001 to 2018 are analyzed by using CERES satellite observation database. Based on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of solar radiation and cloud fraction in various altitude,the influence of solar radiation in different cloud fractions are discussed. The trend estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic output is calculated through the correlation coefficient between the cloud fraction at various altitude and the solar radiative cloud forcing. The cause of the trend of solar radiation dominated by cloud are analyzed,which provides support and reference for the evaluation of renewable energy resources,photovoltaic construction planning and power optimization scheduling in the future.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 光伏发电 云量 云高 时空特征 CERES 

分 类 号：TK513.5[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]