基于配料法的江西省电线积冰预报研究  

Ingredients-based Methodology for Forecasting Wire Icing in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：肖雯 凌婷 刘春 龙余良 赵文灿 XIAO Wen;LING Ting;LIU Chun;LONG Yuliang;ZHAO Wencan(Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Nanchang 330096,China;Zhejiang Guangsheng Technology Co.Ltd,Hangzhou 310016,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气象服务中心,南昌330096 [2]江西省气象台,南昌330096 [3]浙江广晟信息技术有限公司,杭州310016

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2022年第3期70-76,共7页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：2017年江西省科研项目“江西省电线积冰定量预报研究”。

摘　　要：本研究对1970—2016年的江西省电线积冰年际变化特征进行统计,并且确定了配料因子及其阈值,对江西省电线积冰进行预报,得到结论如下:(1)江西省电线积冰主要发生在12月至2月,以雨凇型积冰为主,占67.5%。总积冰日数和雨凇型积冰日数的年际变化都呈现逐年减少的趋势,递减率分别为-0.78 d·a^(-1)和-0.52 d·a^(-1)。(2)选出变化明显的12个物理量作为配料法的成分,并且将北部雨凇型积冰事件的各物理量的个例平均值作为其阈值。(3)确定江西省电线积冰配料法方案:选取近地面相对湿度、近地面风速,700 hPa南北温差、700 hPa垂直速度4个预报因子,在满足这4个因子对应阈值的情况下,依次重点关注700 hPa与925 hPa温差、850 hPa南北温差、700 hPa与850 hPa温差、近地面气温这4个预报因子,以减少空报概率。The characteristics of the annual variation of the wire icing in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2016 are analyzed.This study summarized the ingredients and the threshold which are needed in the wire icing forecasting model in Jiangxi province.The results showed that the wire icing occurred from December to February.The main type of icing was glaze icing accounting for 67.5%.The annual changes of the total icing days and glaze icing days are decreasing year by year.The decreasing rates are-0.78 d·a^(-1) and-0.52 d·a^(-1) respectively.12 factors with obvious change were selected as the ingredients-based methodology.The average value of each physical quantity of the glaze icing events was taken as its threshold value.The ingredients-based methodology programme was selected including the forecasting factors of relative humidity and wind speed near the ground,the temperature difference between the north and south,the vertical speed of 700 hPa.When the threshold of these four factors is met,then consider the temperature difference between 700 hPa and 925 hPa,the temperature difference between the north and south of 850 hPa,the temperature difference between 700 hPa and 850 hPa and the temperature near the ground in order to reduce the vacancy rate.

关 键 词：电线积冰 配料法 阈值 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]