“新雁行模式”理论与“一带一路”产业发展  

The “New Flying-Geese Pattern” and Industrial Development in the “Belt and Road” Area

作　　者：周华蓉[1] 刘友金[1] 贺胜兵[1,2] Zhou Huarong;Liu Youjin;He Shengbing(Business School,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;Research Base of Strategic Emerging Industries in Hunan Province,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]湖南省战略性新兴产业研究基地,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《财经研究》2022年第8期78-93,共16页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973041);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(17ZDA046);教育部人文社科基金一般项目(19YJA790026)。

摘　　要：在全球生产网络背景下,传统的“雁行”理论难以合理解释各国产业发展的新特征。为此,文章以新国际分工体系为背景,提出产业发展的“新雁行模式”,在溯源传统“雁行”理论的基础上,以贸易合作和产业转移为切入点,对“新雁行模式”进行理论分析,并对“一带一路”产业发展的“新雁行模式”进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”产业发展具有梯次发展、依序起飞的“雁行”形态,呈现出“大雁群”嵌套“小雁群”和“多级雁行”格局,“首雁效应”并非只来源于单个国家。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家的生产效率提高、产业发展表现出多元化、高级化趋势,中高技术和高技术产业的比较优势增加,部分新兴市场国家实现了“跨越式”发展,在高技术产业上的比较优势主要源于低附加值环节。(3)“一带一路”倡议提出后,区域内比较优势单向转移明显增加,但是对沿线各国产业结构调整和优化升级的促进作用尚未充分显现。因此,需要发展“一带一路”生产网络,培育“多级雁行”格局,增强我国高质量发展的“领头雁”功能,推进区域产业发展的“新雁行模式”。The traditional “flying-geese” theory cannot reasonably explain the new characteristics of industrial development in various countries.In the global production network,a multi-level system of international specialization has emerged,which is dominated by intra-product specialization,and the coexistence of inter-industry specialization,intra-industry specialization and intra-product specialization.The industrial development in the new international specialization system needs new theoretical explanation.The existing literature proposes the concept of “new flying-geese pattern” from the perspective of industrial development echelon,but lacks a systematic study of its connotation,operation mechanism and characteristics.The industrial development echelon is only the basis of the existence of “flying-geese” relation,which cannot reflect the complete connotation of “flying-geese” relation.This paper puts forward the “new flying-geese pattern” of industrial development in the new international specialization system.On the basis of tracing the traditional “flying-geese” theory,it takes trade cooperation and industrial relocation as the entry point,makes a theoretical analysis of the “new flying-geese pattern”,and verifies this pattern of industrial development in the “Belt and Road” area.The results of empirical analysis are as follows:Firstly,the industrial development in the “Belt and Road” area shows the form of“flying-geese” echelon development and taking off in sequence,with the pattern of “big goose group” nested with “small goose group” as well as “multi-level flying geese”,and the “leading goose” effect does not originate from a single country alone.Secondly,the countries along the “Belt and Road” have improved production efficiency,industrial development shows a trend of diversification and upgrading,and their comparative advantages in the medium and high technology industries have increased.Some emerging markets have achieved “leapfrog” development

关 键 词：“新雁行模式” “一带一路”倡议 区域贸易网络 比较优势转移 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]