基于扩充版“2-4”模型的煤矿重大事故致因分析  

Cause Analysis of Major Coal Mine Accidents Based on Extended "2-4" Model

作　　者：倪廉钦 高杰 NI Lianqin;GAO Jie(State Key Laboratory of Mining Response and Disaster Prevention and Control in Deep Coal Mine,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan,Anhui,232001,China;Shanxi Jinhui Wanfeng Coal Industry Group,Xiaoyi,Shanxi 032300,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学深部煤矿采动响应与灾害防控国家重点实验室,安徽淮南232001 [2]山西金晖万峰煤矿有限公司,山西孝义032300

出　　处：《西昌学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期68-73,共6页Journal of Xichang University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：安徽理工大学校级资助项目(xjyb2020-02)。

摘　　要：为系统研究煤矿重大事故的致因因素,强化安全管理体系,有效预防煤矿重大事故的发生,以2011—2020年发生的74起煤矿重大事故为研究对象,结合煤矿重大事故特征,采用“2-4”模型事故致因链作为分析路径,定量统计分析了事故致因因素的发生频次和占比,总结得出重大事故发生的原因,构建了适用于煤矿重大事故的致因分析模型,采用卡方检验分析了重大事故上下层级致因因素之间的相关性,并提出了针对煤矿重大事故的预防措施。结果表明:煤矿重大事故相邻层级因素之间有20组影响因素的数据具有统计学意义,其中“安全重视程度不足—安全监管不到位—违规冒险作业—不具备生产施工资质”是煤矿重大事故最易发生的途径。This paper takes the 74 major accident of coal mine during 2011-2020 as the research subjects in order to study the causal factors of major coal mine accidents,strengthen the safety management system and effectively avoid the occurrence of major coal mine accidents. Based on the characteristics of major coal mine accidents,this paper follows the analytic approach of“2-4”model accident cause chain to quantitatively calculate and analyze the occurrence frequency and proportion of the accident causal factors which reaches an conclusion for the causes of major accidents.Cause analytic models are constructed and Chi-squared test is used to analyze the correlation between the causes of major accidents at different levels before suggestions for major accident prevention measures are put forward. The results show that there are 20 groups of influencing factors between adjacent levels of major coal mine accidents,among which "insufficient awareness of safety,inadequate safety supervision,illegal and risky operation,and lack of production and construction qualification" are the most common causes for major coal mine accidents.

关 键 词：煤矿重大事故 改进的“2-4”模型 致因分析 卡方检验 让步比分析 

分 类 号：TD771[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]