全球价值链时代的单位劳动成本竞争力:测度方法、结构分解与经济影响  

Unit Labor Cost Competitiveness in the Era of Global Value Chains:Measurement Methods,Structural Decomposition,and Economic Impact

作　　者：杨长江[1] 阎晓璇 YANG Changjiang;YAN Xiaoxuan(School of Economics,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2022年第10期26-46,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：基于单位劳动成本的实际有效汇率指数被认为是从价格角度衡量国际竞争力的最佳指标,但其测算方法在全球价值链时代亟需改进。本文提出了两种基于产品维度的测算指标,并连同传统指标对2000~2014年40个国家的制造业价格竞争力进行了测算。结果显示,价值链因素对于单位劳动成本实际有效汇率测算意义重大,忽略进口以及本国其他行业投入影响的传统测算方法会严重低估中国价格竞争力下降程度。随后,本文提出了新的全球价值链下价格竞争力变动的结构分解方法,将价值链“外包效应”及“巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应”等引入了单位劳动成本的变动来源分析,具体分析了代表性国家价格竞争力的变动构成。本文最后对所测算的单位劳动成本竞争力数据与进出口贸易的关系进行了实证分析,得出如下结论:全球价值链单位劳动成本实际汇率指数相对其他指标能够更好揭示出价格竞争力指标与出口之间的关系;发达国家劳动力价格指标与出口呈正相关而符合“卡尔多悖论”,产品以非价格竞争力为主要特征,发展中国家情况则相反;从细分行业看,价格竞争力仍然是中国制造业出口的重要因素,未来应当进一步提高劳动生产率以提高国际竞争力。The real effective exchange rate index based on unit labor cost is considered to be the best indicator to measure international competitiveness from the perspective of price,but its measurement method urgently needs to be improved in the era of global value chains.We propose two measurement indicators based on product dimensions—the global value chain unit labor cost real effective exchange rate index(GULC-REER)and the underlying national value chain unit labor cost real effective exchange rate index(UNULC-REER).Combining these indicators with traditional indicators,this study measures the price competitiveness of 40 countries at the sector level from 2000 to 2014.The results reveal that the global value chain is of great significance to the real effective exchange rate of unit labor cost.The traditional measurement method,which ignores the influence of imports and inputs from other domestic industries,will greatly underestimate the decline of China’s price competitiveness.Subsequently,this study proposes a new structural decomposition method of price competitiveness changes under the global value chain and introduces the“outsourcing effect”and“Balassa-Samuelson effect”into the analysis of the price competitiveness of representative countries.At the end of this paper,we make an empirical analysis of the relationship between the competitiveness indicators and export.The empirical results indicate that GULC-REER can better reveal the relationship between price competitiveness and export compared with other indicators.The labor price index of developed countries is positively correlated with exports,which is consistent with the“Kaldor’s Paradox,”and products are mainly characterized by non-price competitiveness,whereas the situation of developing countries is the opposite.From the perspective of the sub-industry,price competitiveness is still an important factor in China’s manufacturing export.In the future,labor productivity should be further improved to enhance international competitiveness.

关 键 词：单位劳动成本 全球价值链 实际有效汇率 卡尔多悖论 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易] F831[经济管理—产业经济]