子通道程序对PSBT空泡分布实验计算的不确定性量化分析  

Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis of Subchannel Code Calculation of PSBT Void Distribution Benchmark

作　　者：张俊涛 刘晓晶[1] 张滕飞 柴翔[1] ZHANG Juntao;LIU Xiaojing;ZHANG Tengfei;CHAI Xiang(School of Nuclear Science and Engineering,Shanghai JiaOTong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学核科学与工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报》2022年第10期1420-1426,共7页Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U20B2011)资助项目。

摘　　要：为了评估子通道程序的准确性与可靠性,需要定量给出计算结果的不确定性.采用统计学上基于输入参数不确定性传递的方法进行不确定性分析,可以定量得到程序计算结果的不确定范围.在假设模型参数不确定性服从正态分布的基础上,采用统计学方法确定模型参数不确定性的分布以取代传统的专家判断.通过对压水堆子通道和棒束实验(PSBT)基准题空泡分布实验进行计算,分析子通道程序COBRA-IV对实验结果的预测能力,同时得到满足容忍限的计算结果不确定性上下限.计算结果表明:评估得到的不确定带能较好地包络实验值;同时利用统计均值对模型进行标定后,可以得到比原模型更接近实验值的计算结果.In order tOevaluate the accuracy and reliability of the subchannel code,it is necessary tOquantitatively give the uncertainty of the calculation results.The uncertainty analysis is conducted by using the statistical method based on propagation of input uncertainties,and the uncertainty range of the subchannel code calculation results can be obtained quantitatively.Based on the assumption that the uncertainty of model parameters obeys normal distribution,the statistical method is used tOdetermine the distribution of the uncertainty of model parameters tOreplace the traditional expert judgment.Through the calculation of the pressurized water reactor sub-channel and bundle tests(PSBT)benchmark,the ability of the subchannel code COBRA-IV tOpredict the experimental results is analyzed,and the uncertainty interval satisfying the tolerance limit of the calculation results is obtained.The results demonstrate that the experiment data is well enveloped by the obtained uncertainty bands and the model calibrated by the statistical mean value presents a good improvement of calculations.

关 键 词：不确定性量化 子通道程序 空泡份额 

分 类 号：TL334[核科学技术—核技术及应用]