一个中国边缘海的风-浪-流预报系统  

A Wind-Wave-Current Forecast System for China's Marginal Seas

作　　者：董昌明 LIM KAM SIAN Kenny Thiam Choy 蒋星亮 曹玉晗 嵇宇翔 王森 余洋 陆晓婕 周书逸 韦销蔚 BETHEL Brandon Justin 徐广珺 董济海 孙文金 王海丽 单海霞 王锦 王东霞 滕芳园 曹茜 谢文鸿 游志伟 王子韵 林连杰 DONG Chang-ming;LIM KAM SIAN Kenny Thiam Choy;JIANG Xing-liang;CAO Yu-han;JI Yu-xiang;WANG Sen;YU Yang;LU Xiao-jie;ZHOU Shu-yi;WEI Xiao-wei;BETHEL Brandon Justin;XU Guang-jun;DONG Ji-hai;SUN Wen-jin;WANG Hai-li;SHAN Hai-xia;WANG Jin;WANG Dong-xia;TENG Fang-yuan;CAO Qian;XIE Wen-hong;YOU Zhi-wei;WANG Zi-yun;LIN Lian-jie(School of Marine Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering,Zhuhai 519000,China;Wuxi University,Wuxi 214105,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;School of Marine Technology and Geomatics,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005,China;Lianyungang Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Lianyungang 222006,China;Institute of Marine Resources Development,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005,China;Fujian Meteorological Bureau,Fuzhou 350007,China;Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China;Guangxi Meteorological Service,Nanning 530022,China;School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,CAS,Guangzhou 510301,China;Haizhuang Windpower Co.Ltd,CSSC,Chongqing 401123,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519000 [3]无锡学院,江苏无锡214105 [4]复旦大学大气与海洋科学系,上海200438 [5]江苏海洋大学海洋技术与测绘学院,江苏连云港222005 [6]江苏省连云港市气象局,江苏连云港222006 [7]江苏海洋大学海洋资源开发研究院,江苏连云港222005 [8]福建省气象台,福建福州350007 [9]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084 [10]广西壮族自治区气象局,广西南宁530022 [11]广东海洋大学电子与信息工程学院,广东湛江524088 [12]中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广东广州510301 [13]中国船舶集团海装风电股份有限公司,重庆401123

出　　处：《海洋科学进展》2022年第4期660-683,共24页Advances in Marine Science

基　　金：江苏省自然资源发展专项资金(海洋科技创新)——江苏海洋动力灾害智能监测预警技术研究及其应用示范(JSZRHYKJ202102);国家重点研发计划项目——“全球变化及应对”重点专项之高分辨率海洋模式关键物理过程参数化方案的研发(2017YFA0604100);国家自然科学基金项目——全球变化下江苏海岸线变迁的过程-响应机制(42130405);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)自主科研项目——基于海洋大数据的时空融合机器学习算法的改进及其在海洋动力参数估算和预报中的应用研究(SML2020SP007)。

摘　　要：海洋预报是进行海上活动的安全保障,海洋预报系统技术已经成为现代海洋气象业务的技术支撑。海洋观测、数据同化、数值模拟和高性能计算机等技术的进步极大地推动着海洋业务化预报的发展。采用大气数值模式(WRF)、海洋数值模式(CROCO)和海浪数值模式(SWAN)的多模式高分辨率离线耦合方式,添加南京信息工程大学“海洋数值模拟与观测实验室”团队自主研发的一系列海洋模式参数化方案,包括浪致混合参数化方案、亚中尺度参数化方案、海山诱导混合参数化方案以及涡旋诱导的沿等密度面和跨等密度面混合参数化方案,并通过同化技术和最新的人工智能技术与观测资料相结合,构建一种面向中国边缘海的风浪流多参数耦合预报系统,用于海上风电功率的预报和其他海洋灾害预警。实际观测资料的验证表明,该预报系统能较准确地模拟海上风场、海流、海温、波浪、潮汐等海洋气象要素。同时实现了按需实时可视化全景展示。Marine forecasting is essential for human activities at sea.Marine forecasting system technology supports modern marine meteorological services.Advances in oceanic observation,data assimilation,numerical simulation and high-performance computing also drive the development of marine operational forecasting.The present study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)atmospheric model,the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community(CROCO)model and the Simulating Wave Nearshore(SWAN)model to develop a multi-model high-resolution offline coupled forecasting system over China's marginal seas,for offshore wind power forecast and marine disaster warning.This forecasting system integrates a series of ocean model parameterization schemes,including wave mixing parameterization,mesoscale parameterization,and seamount-and eddy-induced parameterization developed by the Oceanic Modeling and Observation Laboratory of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.Furthermore,observation data are assimilated using data assimilation and artificial intelligence technology in this system.The comparison and analysis of forecast and observation results show that the forecast system can accurately simulate the marine meteorological elements such as surface wind,ocean surface current,sea surface temperature,wave and tide.At the same time,on-demand real-time visual panorama display is realized.

关 键 词：海洋预报系统 海面风场 海面温度 波浪 海流 中国边缘海 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学]