基于预期理论的全国碳市场实证研究  

An empirical study of the national carbon market based on expectation theory

作　　者：刘润霖 王宇露(指导)[1] LIU Runlin;WANG Yulu(Commercial Institute,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院商学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海电机学院学报》2022年第5期305-310,共6页Journal of Shanghai Dianji University

摘　　要：全国碳配额价格平稳有序是碳市场有效运行、发挥减排降碳作用的关键。碳市场参与者的价格预期是影响配额价格走势的重要中介因素。首先,基于价格预期理论,分析国际碳价、西德克萨斯中间基(WTI)原油期货价格与我国碳配额价格的关系;其次,在实际分析中选取了区间为2021年7月16日—12月22日全国碳市场碳排放配额(CEA)成交金额、欧盟碳排放配额(EUA)期货结算价、WTI原油期货价格的时间序列数据;最后,回归分析发现,欧盟碳配额价格、WTI原油期货价格与我国碳价之间存在正相关关系,WTI原油期货价格会负向调节欧盟碳配额价格与我国碳配额价格的关系。基于这一发现,对全国碳市场参与主体的交易决策、我国碳市场主管机构和交易机构提出建议。The stable and orderly price of carbon allowances across the country is the key to the effective operation of the carbon market and the role of emission reduction and carbon reduction.The price expectations of carbon market participants are an important intermediary factor affecting the trend of allowance prices.Firstly,based on the price expectation theory,the relationship between international carbon price,crude oil futures price,and my country’s carbon allowance price is analyzed in this paper.Then,in the actual analysis,the time series data with the interval of July 16,2021 to December 22,2021,the transaction amount of carbon emission allowance(CEA)in the national carbon market,the settlement price of EU carbon emission allowance(EUA)futures,and the price of WTI crude oil futures are selected.Regression analysis is used to find that there is a positive correlation between EU carbon emission rights price,WTI crude oil futures price,and my country’s carbon price.WTI crude oil futures price will negatively adjust the relationship between the EU carbon allowance price and my country’s carbon allowance price.Finally,with this finding,suggestions for the trading decisions of the participants in the national carbon market are presented in this paper,as well as my country’s carbon market authorities and trading institutions.

关 键 词：预期理论 全国碳配额价格 欧盟碳配额价格 WTI原油期货价格 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]