中国降水的年代际变化及全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对其的相对贡献  

Interdecadal variation of land precipitation in China and relative contributions of global warming,IPO and AMO

作　　者：杜佳玉 陶丽[1,2] 许承宇 DU Jiayu;TAO Li;XU Chengyu(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《气象学报》2022年第5期685-700,共16页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600402)。

摘　　要：虽然中国降水以年际变化为主,但可利用奇异谱分析辨析出10-20 a、20-50 a年代际变化的显著性区域以及>50 a的长期趋势的显著性区域。本研究通过奇异值分解、多元线性回归等方法探究了1934-2018年不同海洋模态对6-8月(夏季)和12月-翌年2月(冬季)中国陆地降水趋势以及年代际振荡的相对贡献。通过对中国降水及中低纬度地区海温进行奇异值分解发现,不论冬夏,影响中国降水的主要模态是全球变暖,其次是太平洋年代际振荡。利用多元线性回归模型定量评估全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对中国不同区域降水的方差贡献及各因子的相对贡献,结果表明:夏季,三者可以解释西北和华北大约30%的年代际降水,其中全球变暖的相对贡献最大、太平洋年代际振荡次之;冬季,三者可以解释东北42%、西北和华北30%左右的年代际降水,东北和西北以全球变暖的相对贡献为主、大西洋多年代际振荡为辅,华北仍以全球变暖的影响为主、太平洋年代际振荡为辅。Although land precipitation across China is dominated by inter-annual variability,we identify the areas of significant variability of decadal(10-20 a),multidecadal(20-50 a)and secular trend(>50 a)by applying singular spectrum analysis(SSA).In addition,relative contributions of different sea surface temperature(SST)modes to the trend and(inter)decadal variability of precipitation over China during June-August(summer)/December-February(winter)of 1934-2018 are investigated by singular value decomposition(SVD)and multiple linear regression methods.Based on SVD analysis of precipitation in China and SST in the middle and low latitudes,it is found that global warming(GW)is the primary SST mode affecting precipitation in China in both winter and summer.The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)plays a second role.A multivariate linear regression model is then applied to quantitatively evaluate the variance contributions and relative contributions of GW,IPO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)to precipitation in different regions of China.The results show that GW,IPO and AMO can explain about 30%of the trend and(inter)decadal precipitation in Northwest China and North China in summer,and the relative contribution of GW is the largest,followed by that of IPO.In winter,the above three factors can explain 42%of the trend and(inter)decadal precipitation in Northeast China and about 30%in Northwest China and North China.In Northeast China and Northwest China,the relative contribution of GW is dominant,and the contribution of AMO is second to that of GW.In North China,GW contribution is also dominant,followed by that of IPO.

关 键 词：全球变暖 太平洋年代际振荡(IPO) 大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO) 相对贡献 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]