舰空导弹飞行落点贝叶斯融合预估方法  

Bayesian Fusion Prediction Method of Ship-to-air Missile Landing Point

作　　者：袁非梦 耿化品 凡红梅 锁斌 YUAN Feimeng;GENG Huapin;FAN Hongmei;SUO Bin(School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611730,China;Beijing Electro-Mechanical Engineering Institute,Beijing 100083,China;School of Information Engineering,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China;Complex Environment Equipment Reliability Research Center,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学数学学院,四川成都611730 [2]北京机电工程研究所,北京100083 [3]西南科技大学信息工程学院,四川绵阳621010 [4]西南科技大学复杂环境装备可靠性中心,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《探测与控制学报》2022年第5期97-104,共8页Journal of Detection & Control

基　　金：复杂系统控制与智能协同技术国防科技重点实验室开放研究基金(FZJ20211008)。

摘　　要：为了解决只有少量外场数据和较多的半实物仿真数据情况下的舰空导弹落点预估问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯融合的多源数据融合模型的落点坐标预估方法。考虑到导弹的外场试验数据样本量较少,首先基于概率分配函数和半实物仿真系统代理模型对外场试验数据进行扩充,使增补的样本点既保留了原始数据的概率特征又具有物理内涵;其次基于贝叶斯融合方法建立导弹落点预估模型,将导弹的半实物仿真数据作为先验信息,外场试验数据源作为现场子样进行数据融合,提升了所建融合模型对落点的预测精度;最后基于面积度量指标评估融合效果。通过舰空导弹实弹的外场试验和仿真研究,验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。Aiming at the problem of estimating the landing point of ship-to-air missiles with only a small amount of field data and more semi-physical simulation data,a method for estimating the landing point coordinates of a multi-source data fusion model based on Bayesian fusion was proposed.Considering that the sample size of the missile field test data is small,the field test data was first expanded based on the probability distribution function and the semi-physical simulation system proxy model.So that the supplemented sample points not only retain the probability characteristics of the original data,but also have physical connotations.Secondly,based on the Bayesian fusion method,a missile landing prediction model was established.The semi-physical simulation data of the missile was used as the prior information,and the field test data source was used as the field sample for data fusion,which improves the prediction accuracy of the fusion model for the landing point.Finally,the fusion effect was evaluated based on the area metrics.The practicability and effectiveness of the method were verified through the field and simulation test research of a ship-to-air missile object.

关 键 词：导弹落点 外场试验 数据扩充 基本概率分配 代理模型 贝叶斯融合 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]