区域全面伙伴关系协定(RCEP)实施对中国农业影响的量化模拟及政策启示  

Impact of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement on China’s Agriculture and Policy Implication

作　　者：钱静斐[1] 孙致陆[1] 陈秧分[1] 张玉梅[2] QIAN Jingfei;SUN Zhilu;CHEN Yangfen;ZHANG Yumei

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2022年第9期33-45,共13页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“RCEP对中国农业高质量发展的影响与应对战略研究”(编号:21&ZD093);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“重大冲击和变化对中国—全球农业影响模拟模型的研究和开发”(编号:71761147004);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(编号:1610052022023,Y2021ZK01);中国农业科学院创新工程(编号:10-IAED-04-2022)。

摘　　要：本文基于中国与RCEP其他成员国农产品贸易现状,采用中国一般均衡模型(CGE)量化模拟RCEP协定实施对中国农业的影响。结果表明,RCEP协定实施有利于中国以更低的价格保障大宗农产品有效供给和满足国内居民食物消费升级需求,在贸易创造效应的作用下,中国从RCEP国家进口的农产品增加;在贸易转移效应的作用下,中国从世界其他国家进口农产品数量将出现不同程度下降;中国与RCEP国家的农产品贸易具有弱竞争性,RCEP实施不会冲击中国农产品市场;城镇居民将从农产品关税下降中获益,由于面临产业竞争,农村居民社会福利将略有下降。Based on the current situation of China’s agricultural products trade with other RCEP member countries,this study applies China General Equilibrium Model(CGE)to quantitatively simulate the impacts of the RCEP agreement on China’s agriculture.The results show that the implementation of the RCEP agreement is conducive to China’s securing an effective supply of bulk agricultural products at lower prices and meeting the upgrading food consumption demand of domestic residents.Under the effect of trade creation,agricultural products imported from RCEP countries will increase,meanwhile.Under the effect of trade diversion,the number of agricultural products imported by China from other countries in the world will decrease to various degrees;China’s agricultural products trade with RCEP countries has weak competition,and the implementation of RCEP will not threaten China’s agricultural market.Urban residents will benefit from the tariff cut of agricultural products,and the social welfare of rural residents will be slightly declined due to more intense competition.

关 键 词：区域全面伙伴关系协定 农业 贸易效应 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6