“双碳”目标与基于自然的解决方案:森林碳汇的潜力和政策需求  

Nature-based Solutions in Meeting China’s Dual-carbon Goal:The Potential of Forest and Policy Needs

作　　者：徐晋涛[1] 易媛媛 XU Jintao;YI Yuanyuan

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2022年第9期11-23,共13页Issues in Agricultural Economy

摘　　要：基于自然的解决方案(Nature-based Solutions, NbS)是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要手段。其中,森林生态系统碳汇是我国具有成本和技术优势的一项措施。本文通过外延扩大再生产、内涵扩大再生产和产品市场替代三个维度,论证了森林碳汇的巨大潜力并给出具体的测算结果,并指出目前林业部门存在制度和政策方面的不足。要想实现森林碳汇的潜力,在集体林区,需要进一步深化集体林权制度改革、去除限制性的林业管理政策,调动林农和私人部门投资于林、改善林业经营的积极性;在国有林区,需要重启国有林管理体制改革,并适时调整天然林禁伐政策,加速将部分退化的天然林改造为高产的人工林。由森林生产力改善而增加的木材供给,如果用于长期固碳的产品形式,例如建筑用材可以替代高碳建筑材料,有助于大幅度减少二氧化碳排放。Since China’s President Xi Jinping has announced the country’s goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 in September 2020,a good many studies and the policy sector have developed transition pathways for a low-carbon economy.Forests are the largest carbon pool in the terrestrial ecosystem, having low-cost and technological advantages as a Nature-based Solution.This paper examines the huge potential of forest carbon sinks from three dimensions: the extensive margin in reforestation and afforestation, the intensive margin in forest quality improvement, and the substitution potential for carbon-intensive materials.We provide forest carbon sequestration estimates for each dimension and the contribution to China’s low-carbon transition.To realize this potential, it is necessary for the forest sector to support with institutional and policy reforms.In collective forest areas, the Collective Forest Tenure Reform should move on further by removing restrictive forestry management policies in order to motivate forest farmers’ incentive to invest in forestland, so that forest quality could improve.In state forest areas, we propose to restart the reform of state-owned forest management system and adjust the logging ban by allowing for sustainable timber harvest, and transformation of partially degraded natural forests into fast-growing plantation forests.This improvement in forest productivity increases timber supply, of which the wood products continue to store carbon.Furthermore, substituting the wood products for more carbon-intensive fuels and materials, such as in the building sector, it contributes to limiting the rise of COconcentration in the atmosphere.

关 键 词：碳达峰、碳中和 基于自然的解决方案 森林碳汇 林业改革 天然林禁伐 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]