中国农业碳中和目标分析与实现路径  

Analysis on the Goals and Paths of Carbon Neutral Agriculture in China

作　　者：赵敏娟[1] 石锐 姚柳杨[1] ZHAO Minjuan;SHI Rui;YAO Liuyang

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2022年第9期24-34,共11页Issues in Agricultural Economy

摘　　要：实现农业碳中和既是缓解全球气候变暖的应有之义,也是向现代农业转型的内在要求。本文提出农业碳中和的低碳、零碳、负碳三种目标及内涵,构建了中国在2060年实现农业碳中和的路径图。预测结果表明,中国农业碳排放在2060年的基线情景下相对于2018年将增长64.91%,减排措施将有潜力减少74.18%的基线情景碳排放量,结合碳抵消措施将能够实现农业零碳目标。同时,中国农业碳排放在2016年已经达峰,在未来通过减排能力建设阶段、快速减排阶段、巩固完善阶段将能够实现农业碳中和。在此基础上,本文提出了实现中国农业碳中和的保障措施,并展望了中国农业碳中和的发展前景。The achievement of carbon neutral agriculture is an essential part of mitigating global warming and realizing modern agricultural transformation.This study delivers a roadmap for China’s carbon neutral agriculture by 2060,in which three goals of low-carbon, zero carbon, and negative carbon scenarios are designed.The analysis predicts that, China’s agricultural carbon emissions will increase by 64.91% in the baseline scenario of 2060 compared with 2018,the baseline scenario emissions in 2060 have the potential to be reduced by 74.18% through the implementation of mitigation measures, and agricultural net-zero carbon will be achieved by additional carbon offset measures.Meanwhile, the analysis also indicates China’s agricultural emissions already peaked in 2016 and would be carbon neutral through the stages of capability building, rapid emission reduction, consolidation and improvement in the future.The study also discusses the additional guarantees and future prospects to achieve carbon neutral agriculture in China.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 碳中和 碳减排 碳抵消 实现路径 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]