莆田市霜减少的原因分析  

Analysis on Decrease of Frost in Putian City

作　　者：许文华 黄梅妹 Xu Wenhua;Huang Meimei(Putian City Meteorological Burean,Putian 351180,Fujian,China;Licheng District Meteorological Station,Licheng 351180,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]莆田市气象局,福建莆田351180 [2]莆田市荔城区气象局,福建荔城351180

出　　处：《农业技术与装备》2022年第9期128-130,共3页Agricultural Technology & Equipment

摘　　要：文章利用1980年12月—2022年2月莆田市国家气象观测站地面资料,分析了莆田市年霜日数的时空分布特征、霜日地面气象要素的年代际变化特征,归纳霜预报的地面要素指标并对预报指标做效果评估,研究年霜日数减少的原因。结果表明:年均霜日数仙游站6.7 d,莆田站1.1 d,莆田站更靠近沿海,仙游站更靠近内陆是造成年均日数差异的主要原因;莆田市年霜日数有明显的年代际变化,但转折年份并没有发生气候变暖的转折年份,而是发生在1997年/1998年:1997年以后年均霜日数莆田站由2.5 d降至0.2 d,2002年之后的20年间几乎无霜,仙游站由9.9 d降至4.5 d;通过晴朗微风少云及低温等条件得到的霜日指标适用于仙游站和1997年以前的莆田站,指标的命中率均达60%以上,TS评分达59%以上;1997年以后符合霜指标的年日数明显减少,表明气候变暖对霜日减少的影响,城市化、工业化及房地产等行业发展是莆田市霜日减少的第二大原因,仙游站未来霜日也将继续加速减少,终年无霜的情况会更多。Based on surface meteorological observation data of meteorological observation stations from December 1980 to February 2022 in Putian City,the article analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of annual total frost days in Putian,induces the surface element indexes for frost days forecasting.The reasons for the decrease of annual frost days are studied.The results show:the mean annual frost days is 6.7 at Xianyou Station and Putian Station is 1.1.The difference is mainly caused by station position as Putian Station is closer to coast,however,Xianyou Station is closer to inland.The inter decadal variation of annual total frost days over Putian is significant,it turned to be less after 1997 and 1998 winter,which time is not the same as climate warming year.Since 1997,the mean annual frost days over Putian Station has decreased from 2.5s to 0.2,the phenomenon also means almost no frost days in the recent 20 years.As for Xianyou Station,the annual frost days decreased from 9.9 to 4.5.The indexes of frost days obtained by conditions as gentle breeze,cloudless and lowest temperature are suitable for Xianyou Station and Putian Station before 1997 with hit rate reaching to more than 60%and TS score reaching to more than 59%.Significant decreasing days qualified to indexes means the influence of climate warming on the frost.Other factors than climate warming may contribute to the decreasing of frost days over Putian.The development of urbanization and industrialization and real estate is guessed to be the second key causation for the decreasing of frost days over Putian.In the future,the decreasing rate of frost days over Xianyou Station will continue to accelerate,the occurrence of none frost days throughout the year will be more,alike Putian Station.

关 键 词：霜日 年代际 气候变暖 最低气温 最低地温 

分 类 号：P423.41[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]