清代粮食价格时空演变特征及其当代启示  

The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of grain prices in the Qing Dynasty and its contemporary enlightenment

作　　者：黄玉玺 李军[2] HUANG Yu-xi;LI Jun(Rural Revitalization Research Center,Management College of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 102208;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100091)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部管理干部学院乡村振兴研究中心,北京102208 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100091

出　　处：《价格月刊》2022年第11期1-10,共10页

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“历史时期气候变化对华北地区粮食生产与价格波动的影响”(编号:13CJL008);北京市社科基金项目“清代北京地区粮价波动与社会应对”(编号:12LSC014);中国博士后科学基金第64批面上资助项目(编号:2018M641299)。

摘　　要：中国传统农业社会中,粮价乃百价之基,粮价变动可反映经济发展与百姓生活。综合利用两套清代粮价数据,整体系统研究清代直隶粮价时空演变特征。结果显示,1738—1911年直隶小麦、高粱、粟米价格长期上涨,呈现“涨→跌→涨→平→涨”趋势,各阶段大约持续30年,短期内出现较大波动;空间特征由粮食供需关系空间差异决定,以冀中平原为中心高价区向四周逐渐降低。粮价时空变动受气候和灾害、人口与耕地、交通条件、银钱比价、寻租行为等多种因素共同作用。当下国际局势复杂多变,俄乌冲突与全球新冠肺炎疫情叠加导致全球粮价上涨,中国提出“粮食安全党政同责”与“大食物观”,坚守粮食安全底线。从大历史观看,清代粮价时空演变对当前加强政府宏观调控、稳定粮食价格仍有重要启示。In the traditional agricultural society of China,the price of grain is the basis of a variety of commodity prices,and the change of grain price can reflect social economic development and people’s life.Based on the two sets of grain price data in the Qing Dynasty,this paper systematically studies the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of grain price in Zhili province during Qing Dynasty.The results show that the prices of wheat,sorghum and corn in Zhili province showed a rising trend from 1738 to 1911,the concrete performance is the trend of“growth→decline→growth→level→growth”,and each stage lasted for about 30 years,with large volatility in the short term;the spatial characteristics are determined by the spatial differences between the supply and demand of grain,and the high price area centered on the central Hebei plain gradually decreases to the surrounding areas.The temporal and spatial changes of grain prices are affected by many factors,such as climate and disasters,population and cultivated land,traffic conditions,the exchange rate between silver and copper coin,rent-seeking behavior,etc.At present,the international situation is complex and changeable.The Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 have led to the rise of global food prices.China has proposed the construction of the Party and Government co-examination mechanism for food security and big food perspective to hold the bottom line of food security.From the perspective of grand history,the temporal and spatial evolution of grain prices in the Qing Dynasty still has important enlightenment for strengthening the government’s macro-control and stabilizing grain prices.

关 键 词：清代直隶 粮食安全 价格特征 时空演变 当代启示 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]