水资源生态安全的时空分异特征——以南水北调东线山东段为例  

Spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of water resources ecological security:Case study in Shandong section of the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：杨亚锋 高媛媛[3] 许新宜[1] 袁浩瀚 王红瑞[1] YANG Yafeng;GAO Yuanyuan;XU Xinyi;YUAN Haohan;WANG Hongrui(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Sciences,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210,China;Bureau of South to North Water Transfer Planning,Designing and Management,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]华北理工大学理学院,河北唐山063210 [3]水利部南水北调规划设计管理局,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第5期833-841,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51879010);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0408902)。

摘　　要：为厘清南水北调东线一期工程受水区的水资源生态安全状况,为后续工程相关政策的制定和实施提供参考,基于压力-状态-响应模型探讨水资源生态安全的评价指标体系,进而耦合带模相似度的投影决策法和基尼系数法,研究南水北调东线山东段水资源生态安全的时空分异特征。结果表明:2011—2019年该区域水资源生态安全整体上呈现良性发展态势,综合评价函数值由0.4631增至0.6234。除东营外,各地市在不同程度上表现为:压力子系统指数较高,但由于积极的响应系统,水资源生态安全状况有一定改善。从空间维度来看,研究期内14个地市的水资源生态安全状态总体上保持均衡,基尼系数稳定在0.2左右,但万元GDP用水量等指标的空间差异较为突出。人类活动,尤其用水效率对水资源生态安全的影响日益凸显,南水北调东线工程对山东段受水区的水资源生态安全起到了重要的促进作用。Shandong of the east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project(Hereinafter referred to as Shandong section)is the main water receiving area of the first phase of the east route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,and its water resources ecological security(WRES)research can provide reference for the implementation of subsequent projects.Based on the pressure-state-response(P-S-R)model,an evaluation indicators system of WRES was discussed,and then the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of WRES were studied by coupling the projection decision method with modulus similarity and Gini coefficient method.From the perspective of time series,WRES in 14 cities of Shandong section has generally become better year by year,and the comprehensive ranking value has increased from 0.4631 in 2011 to 0.6234 in 2019.However,the situation is not optimistic,and there is still a large gap from the ideal state.Among the 126 samples,only 25.4%had a ranking value of more than 0.6,6.3%more than 0.7,and only Dongying reached 0.8 in 2019.Population and economic development are important factors affecting WRES,which also shows that human beings have more and more influence on the water resources system while pursuing the rapid development of economy and society.In2019,with the exception of Dongying,the response subsystem is better than the pressure subsystem and the state subsystem to varying degrees,especially the lag of the pressure subsystem.The Shandong section is generally facing great pressure on WRES,and it has not been effectively alleviated during the study period.Especially Heze and Zaozhuang,the pressure subsystem of the two cities is in a relatively backward position all the year round.The strong man-made control measures in various cities have alleviated the risks brought by the pressure subsystem to a certain extent,making the level of WRES improve year by year.From the perspective of space,the spatial equilibrium state of Shandong section of east route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project has gr

关 键 词：水资源生态安全 空间均衡 带模相似度投影决策法 基尼系数 南水北调东线山东段 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]