地方政府评价与育龄群体二孩生育决策——基于CFPS数据的实证分析  

Local Government Evaluation and Decision-making of Two-child Birth for Childbearing Age Groups——An Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS Data

作　　者：张平[1] 肖真妮 王伟舟 ZHANG Ping;XIAO Zhenni;WANG Weizhou

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]伦敦大学学院斯拉夫东欧研究院,英国伦敦999020

出　　处：《决策与信息》2022年第11期53-67,共15页Decision & Information

基　　金：2017年度国家社会科学基金项目“基于地方政府激励的统计虚报测度及校正机制研究”(编号:17BJL070)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2016年1月1日,“全面二孩”生育政策在全国范围内正式实施。通过聚焦育龄群体对“全面二孩”政策的预期生育行为,利用2014、2016、2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用混合截面双重差分(DID)和倾向得分匹配(PSM)相结合的方法,估计了对地方政府的评价如何影响育龄群体对“全面二孩”政策的预期生育反应。实证结果发现育龄群体会对未来生育政策做出预期反应,育龄群体对政府的信任是一种策略性信任,对地方政府评价越高越会对未来生育政策做出积极反应从而进行预期生育行为。异质性分析结果显示,18至29岁和东中部地区育龄群体的预期行为受到对地方政府评价的影响更甚。政府如果希望未来政策更快更好达到效果,就不能忽视政策颁布前与群众就政策相关信息进行沟通、宣传与预期引导,且应该重视长期政策信誉建设。On January 1,2016,the universal two-child policy was officially implemented nationwide.By focusing on the expected fertility behavior of childbearing age groups on the'universal two-child'policy,using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2014,2016 and 2018,and using a combination of mixed-section differencein-difference(DID)and propensity score matching(PSM),this paper estimates how the evaluation of local governments affects the expected fertility response of childbearing age groups to the'universal two-child'policy.The empirical results show that the childbearing age group will make an expected response to the future fertility policy.The trust of the childbearing age group to the government is a strategic trust.The higher the evaluation of the local government,the more it will respond positively to the future fertility policy and carry out the expected fertility behavior.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the expected behavior of childbearing age groups aged 18 to 29 and in the eastern and central regions is more affected by the evaluation of local governments.If the government hopes that future policies will achieve better and faster results,it cannot ignore the communication,publicity and expectation guidance with the masses on policy-related information before the promulgation of the policy,and should attach importance to long-term policy credibility building.

关 键 词：生育意愿 生育行为 全面二孩政策 公众预期 人口政策 政府信誉 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]