Global Asymptotic Stability in a Delay Differential Equation Model for Mosquito Population Suppression  

作　　者：Mu-gen HUANG Jian-she YU 

机构地区：[1]School of Statistics and Mathematics,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China [2]Guangzhou Center for Applied Mathematics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China

出　　处：《Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica》2022年第4期882-901,共20页应用数学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12026222,12071095);Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University(No.IRT 16R16);by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(No.2017A030310597)。

摘　　要：A bio-safe dengue control strategy is to use Wolbachia,which can induce incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility(CI)and reduce the mating competitiveness of infected males.In this work,we formulate a delay differential equation model,including both the larval and adult stages of wild mosquitoes,to assess the impacts of CI intensityξand mating competitivenessθof infected males on the suppression efficiency.Our analysis identifies a CI intensity thresholdξ*below which a successful suppression is impossible.Whenξ≥ξ*,the wild population will be eliminated ultimately if the releasing level exceeds the release amount threshold R*uniformly.The dependence of R*onξandθ,and the impact of temperature on suppression are further exhibited through numerical examples.Our analyses indicate that a slight reduction ofξis more devastating than significantly decrease ofθin the suppression efficiency.To suppress more than 95%wild mosquitoes during the peak season of dengue in Guangzhou,the optimal starting date for releasing is sensitive toξbut almost independent ofθ.One percent reduction ofξfrom 1 requires at least one week earlier in the optimal releasing starting date from 7 weeks ahead of the peak season of dengue.

关 键 词：dengue fever WOLBACHIA cytoplasmic incompatibility population suppression strategy delay differential equation 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学] R512.8[理学—基础数学]