从“一个不少”到“三个正好”:中国生育政策的流变逻辑  

From “One Is Not Few” To “Three Is Just Right”:Evolution Logic in China’s Fertility Policy

作　　者：杨菊华 YANG Ju-hua(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院人口与民族发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《江苏行政学院学报》2022年第5期64-73,共10页The Journal of Jiangsu Administration Institute

摘　　要：新世纪以降,制约中国人生育观念与行为的关键要素已从生育控制政策转变为从婚嫁到子女教育、职场发展等个体生命链条中过高的经济、时间和机会成本。这一转变带来了中国生育政策从控制到包容的颠覆性反转。理解新中国成立以来生育思潮与生育政策的流变及其变迁背后的逻辑,必须突破就当期谈当期、就中国谈中国、就人口谈人口、就生育谈生育的局限,把政策变迁置于人口发展的历史长河、全球视野、经济政治体系、婚嫁生养的生命历程中加以考量。当前,在人口跌入零增长区间、人口负增长即将来临之际,人们的生育意愿依旧约为两个孩子,须趁意愿尚未跌入过低陷阱之际,以切中需求的举措,助力人们实现生育意愿,或是扭转当前生育颓势的最佳选择。Around the beginning of the new century, the key factors affecting fertility norms and behaviors of Chinese people had gone beyond the fertility policy itself. Changes in the norms, attitudes and behaviors of marriages and families, as well as the excessive economic and opportunity costs in childbearing and childrearing are identified as the key barriers of fertility, which had brought about a subversive change in China’s fertility policy from controlling to inclusiveness. To understand the logic behind the policy changes in fertility-related affairs since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, it is necessary to break through the limitations of contemporary situations, national boundary, the domain of population, and the scope of fertility;instead, we need to reconsider the fertility policy in the context of the long history of population development, the global perspective, the overall economic and political development, and the whole chain of marriage and childbirth. At present, upon the entry into zero-growth of population and on the eve of negative population growth, it is found that people still prefer to have two kids;before this willingness plunges into the deep valley, it is advisable to take effective measures to meet people’s demands and to fulfill people’s fertility wishes, which might be the optimal solution to turn the current declining trend in fertility affairs.

关 键 词：“人口论” “人手论” 生育转变 生育配套支持 人口可持续发展 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]