国际金融危机后的通胀目标制:宏观经济政策效应及影响机制  

Inflation Targeting After the International Financial Crisis:Macroeconomic Policy Effects and its Influence Mechanism

作　　者：刘东华[1] 姚驰 Liu Dong-hua;Yao Chi

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2022年第10期96-107,共12页Economist

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目“新兴市场国家通胀目标制政策有效性及其影响机制研究--以‘稳定通胀预期’为研究主线”(16YJA790025)。

摘　　要：国际金融危机前通胀目标制备受推崇,那么这之后表现怎样?这是个颇令人感兴趣和值得研究的课题,并且现有研究相对不足。本文以新兴经济体国家为分析对象,对通胀目标制的宏观经济效应及其影响机制这一重要剖面进行系统分析。研究结论显示,国际金融危机后新兴经济体通胀目标制国家的宏观经济表现总体而言好于非通胀目标制国家,而这一货币政策在其中发挥出了积极作用。关于政策效应的影响机制,本文认为,通货膨胀目标制具有“稳”通胀预期的作用,它是该良好政策效应的基石;而新兴经济体国家采用通胀目标制后内生所需的制度性建设,促使了通胀预期稳定性的提高。我国经济高水平开放和高质量发展需要一个良好稳定的货币金融环境,本文为相关研究和探讨提供了一个可资借鉴的素材,具有一定的启发和参考意义。Before the international financial crisis, inflation targeting was highly respected, so how did it perform after that? This is a subject of interest and worth research. This paper takes emerging economies as the analysis object and systematically analyzes the macroeconomic effect and influence mechanism of inflation target after the international financial crisis. The results demonstrates that the macroeconomic performance of emerging economies which adopted inflation target is generally better than that of non-inflation target countries, and this monetary policy has played a positive effect. Regarding the influence mechanism of policy effect, the research conclusion shows that inflation target can "stabilize" the inflation expectation, which is the cornerstone of the above good policy effects, and the institutional construction of emerging economies which adopted inflation target promotes the stability of inflation expectation. China′s high-level economic opening and high-quality development need a good and stable monetary and financial environment, and this paper provides some materials for relevant research and discussion,and has certain inspiration and reference significance.

关 键 词：通货膨胀目标制 国际金融危机后 新兴经济体国家 宏观经济效应 稳通胀预期 

分 类 号：F852.12[经济管理]