1961—2020年黄河流域干旱演变分析和大气响应  

Analysis of Drought Evolution and Atmospheric Response in the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：刘玉针 魏长寿 李志进 LIU Yuzhen;WEI Changshou;LI Zhijin(College of Geodesy and Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;School of Mining and Coal,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学测绘与空间信息学院,山东青岛266590 [2]内蒙古科技大学矿业与煤炭学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2022年第10期7-17,共11页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：本文选取黄河流域1961—2020年90个气象站点的实测逐月降水和气温数据,采用SPEI指数、交叉小波变换和经验正交函数等方法探究流域干旱时空演变在年、季尺度上的特征,并结合气象因子,研究长期干旱与大气之间的遥相关性。结果表明,年尺度上,流域SPEI以0.102/10a幅度呈现干旱趋势,干旱发生频率为25.0%~38.3%,等级越低,发生频率越高;空间上,以景泰—固原—临夏—合作线为界,呈现西湿东干趋势;季尺度上,冬季干旱化趋势最弱,春季和夏季次之,秋季最为明显;EOF分析显示,流域整体以干旱分布为主,但是干旱情况呈现缓解趋势;交叉小波变换分析显示,MEI与SPEI相关性最高,表明流域内与气温和降水有关的干旱演变与ENSO事件密切相关。研究成果可为黄河流域干旱减灾和水资源管理提供理论依据。In this paper,the measured monthly precipitation and temperature data of 90 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2020 are selected. SPEI index,cross wavelet transform and empirical orthogonal function are applied to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution of drought in the Yellow River Basin at annual and seasonal scales,and the teleconcorrelation between long-term drought and atmosphere is studied with reference to meteorological factors. The results show that at the annual scale,SPEI of the basin shows a drought trend with the range of 0. 102/10a and the frequency of drought is 25. 0% to 38. 3%. The lower the degree,the higher the frequency of drought.Spatially,taking Jingtai-Guyuan-Linxia-Hezuo line as the boundary,it shows a trend of wet in the west and dry in the east.At the seasonal scale,the trend of dryness is the weakest in winter,followed by spring and summer,and is the most obvious in autumn. EOF analysis shows that drought is mainly distributed in the basin as a whole with an alleviating trend.The cross wavelet transform analysis shows that MEI and SPEI have the highest correlation,indicating that the drought evolution related to temperature and precipitation in the basin is closely related to ENSO event. The research results can provide theoretical basis for drought mitigation and water resources management in the Yellow River Basin.

关 键 词：干旱 SPEI EOF分析 交叉小波变换 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]