2004~2018年我国流行性腮腺炎发病及死亡情况  

Morbidity and mortality of epidemic parotitis in China from 2004 to 2018

作　　者：陆祖添 苏永健 李嘉铃 张家玮 赵文文 李海 LU Zu-tian;SU Yong-jian;LI Jia-ling;ZHANG Jia-wei;ZHAO Wen-wen;LI Hai(Xixiangtang District of Nanning City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530001,Guangxi,China;Teaching and Researching Section of Epidemiology,School of Public Health and Management,Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine,Nanning 530200,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西南宁市西乡塘区疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁市530001 [2]广西中医药大学公共卫生与管理学院流行病学教研室,广西南宁市530200

出　　处：《广西医学》2022年第17期2017-2025,共9页Guangxi Medical Journal

基　　金：广西中医药大学研究生教育创新计划项目(YCXJ2021030,YCSZ2020020)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2004~2018年我国流行性腮腺炎(流腮)的发病及死亡情况。方法 收集公共卫生科学数据中心的流腮发病和死亡数据及国家统计局的人口学资料,建立2004~2018年流腮发病和死亡数据集。采用Joinpoint 4.9.0.0软件建立Joinpoint回归模型,分析2004~2018年我国不同省(自治区、直辖市)、不同年龄段人群的流腮发病情况、发病变化趋势及死亡情况。结果 (1)2004~2018年共报告4 269 946例流腮病例,年平均报告发病率为21.237 7/10万;共报告死亡病例24例,年平均报告死亡率为0.000 1/10万,年平均报告病死率为0.562 1/10万。(2)2004~2018年我国流腮报告发病率呈平稳趋势(P>0.05)。第一阶段(2004~2012年)的报告发病率呈上升趋势(P<0.05),第二阶段(2012~2015年)和第三阶段(2015~2018年)的报告发病率均呈平稳趋势(均P>0.05)。(3)在31个省(自治区、直辖市)中,2004~2018年我国流腮年平均报告发病率排名前3位的依次是宁夏、新疆、西藏;年平均报告死亡率最高的是宁夏,其次是陕西;年平均报告病死率排名前3位的依次是陕西、宁夏、内蒙古。(4)湖南、河南2个省份的流腮报告发病率呈上升趋势(均P<0.05);其余省(自治区、直辖市)的报告发病率呈平稳趋势(21个)或下降趋势(8个)(均P>0.05)。(5)流腮在0~<20岁人群中高发,该年龄段人群的报告发病数占总病例数的91.19%。年平均报告死亡率在各年龄段人群中均处于较低水平,95.83%的死亡病例集中在0~<25岁人群。(6)9个年龄段人群的报告发病率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.05),以45~<85岁人群为主,其余17个年龄段人群的报告发病率呈平稳趋势(均P>0.05)。结论 2004~2018年我国流腮报告发病率总体呈平稳趋势。除湖南、河南外,各省(自治区、直辖市)的发病率维持稳定或呈下降趋势。流腮在0~<20岁人群中高发,死亡病例集中在0~<25岁人群,中老年人群的报告发病率呈上升趋势。建议关注经济发�Objective To analyze the morbidity and mortality of epidemic parotitis in China from 2004 to 2018.Methods The morbidity and mortality of epidemic parotitis from center for public health science data and demographic data from the National Bureau of Statistics were collected,and the morbidity and mortality data set ofepidemic parotitis from 2004 to 2018 was established. The Joinpoint 4. 9. 0. 0 software was used to establish theJoinpoint regression model,and the morbidity,trend of morbidity,and mortality of epidemic parotitis betweendifferent provinces ( autonomous regions,municipalities) ,and between people of different ages in China from 2004 to2018 were analyzed. Results ( 1) A total of 4 269 946 cases of epidemic parotitis were reported from 2004 to 2018,with average annual reported morbidity of 21. 237 7 /100 thousands;a total of 24 death cases were reported,with averageannual reported mortality of 0. 000 1 /100 thousands,and average annual reported case fatality rate of 0. 562 1 /100thousands. ( 2) The reported morbidity of epidemic parotitis in China depicted a stable trend from 2004 to 2018 ( P > 0. 05) .The reported morbidity of the first stage ( from 2004 to 2012) maintained an upward trend ( P < 0. 05) ,and then thereported morbidity of the second ( form 2012 to 2015) and third stages ( form 2015 to 2018) interpreted a stabletrend ( all P > 0. 05) . ( 3) Among the 31 provinces ( autonomous regions,municipalities) ,from 2004 to 2018,thetop three with the highest average annual reported morbidity of epidemic parotitis were Ningxia,Xinjiang,and Tibet,successively;the highest average annual reported mortality were Ningxia,followed by Shaanxi;in addition,the top three withthe highest average annual reported case fatality rates were Shaanxi,Ningxia,and inner Mongolia,successively. ( 4) Thereported morbidity of epidemic parotitis in Hunan and Henan provinces implied an upward trend ( all P < 0. 05) . Inthe remaining provinces ( autonomous regions,municipalities) ,the reported morbidity showed a stable trend ( 2

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 报告发病率 死亡情况 变化趋势 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]