基于人口聚集城区物流配送需求的细分及预测——以青岛为例  

Subdivision and Prediction of Logistics Distribution Demand in Population-dense Urban Areas:Taking Qingdao as Example

作　　者：聂闻聪 向楠 楚龙娟 刘永权 NIE Wencong;XIANG Nan;CHU Longjuan;LIU Yongquan(China Construction Underground Space Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610200;Sichuan Communications Investment&Logistics Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610200,China)

机构地区：[1]中建地下空间有限公司,四川成都610200 [2]四川交投物流有限公司,四川成都610200

出　　处：《物流技术》2022年第9期87-92,143,共7页Logistics Technology

基　　金：中建股份科技研发课题“地下物流系统关键技术研究”(CSCEC-2019-Z-10);2020年成都市第三批技术创新研发项目“利用城市轨道交通开展城市物流配送关键技术研究”(2019-YF05-02703-SN)。

摘　　要：为了预测城市区域配送需求,解决城市配送的供需不平衡,通过分析城市配送需求,梳理城市配送需求结构构成,归纳总结了新业态下城市配送需求的类型,并给出同城即时配送需求的预估方法。同时,在传统城市配送类别中,选取其中13项纳入到城市配送需求,通过开展网络调研,取得价格、重量、销量等数据,构建数学模型对各品类配送物流需求量进行还原估计,并以青岛为例,选取典型年份进行需求预测,提出以有效预测为基础的供需平衡提升发展路径。In this paper, in order to predict urban regional distribution demand and solve supply/demand imbalance of urban distribution, we analyzed the urban distribution demand, sorted out the urban distribution demand structure, summarized the type of urban distribution demand under the new business normal, and gave the method of estimation of the demand for in-city instant distribution. At the same time, from among the traditional urban distribution categories, we picked out 13 items to be included in the urban distribution demand,and based on data such as price, weight, and sales volume, etc., obtained through online survey, established a mathematical model to deduce and estimate the distribution logistics demand of each of the categories. At the end, in the example of Qingdao in a typical year, we predicted its urban distribution demand and proposed accordingly the development path for improving the supply and demand balance of the city.

关 键 词：城市配送 配送需求 需求细分 物流量估计 需求预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F252.14