劳动调整成本、经济增长与货币政策的就业效应  

Labor Adjustment Cost,Economic Growth and Employment Effect of Monetary Policy

作　　者：杨柳[1] 亓晓彤 周慧娟 蔡文娟 黄卓 Yang Liu;Qi Xiaotong;Zhou Huijuan;Cai Wenjuan;Huang Zhuo(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079;Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300191;Liyuan Street of the People’s Government of Hongshan District,Wuhan 430000;Wuhan Rural Commercial Bank,Wuhan 430077)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,武汉430079 [2]浪潮电子信息产业股份有限公司,北京100085 [3]南开大学经济学院,天津300191 [4]武汉市洪山区人民政府梨园街办事处,武汉430000 [5]武汉农村商业银行股份有限公司,武汉430077

出　　处：《管理评论》2022年第8期29-42,共14页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873055)。

摘　　要：基于中国经济对奥肯定律以及菲利普斯曲线的背离现象,本文实证分析了中国经济中劳动调整成本的来源、大小和影响,并对引入中国现实经济特征的新凯恩斯模型进行了估计和模拟,发现包含劳动调整成本的模型能够在相当程度上解释中国经济的异象:劳动调整成本会弱化劳动需求与产出、真实工资以及成本加成间的相关关系,造成正向技术冲击下的高增长与低就业,低通胀共存;同时使得扩张性货币政策在扩大产出与投资的同时无法有效提振就业,经济中呈现长短期菲利普斯曲线均失灵的状况。进一步地,本文对新常态时期劳动调整成本增大的宏观经济影响进行了模拟研究,并提出了相关政策建议。Previous work indicates that there exists an“Okun’s Paradox”in China.In this paper,we add empirically plausible labor adjustment costs(LAC)into a New-Keynesian model with business cycle statistics that match China’s economy.It shows that with labor adjustment costs our model is capable of reproducing these empirical facts.The model simulation results also show that during the new normal period characterized by increasing LAC,there is a lower correlation between aggregate labor demand and output,real wages and cost plus.Meanwhile,it is not appropriate to depend too much on the expansionary monetary policy to solve unemployment problem,as there exists no Philips Curve in both long-term and short-term.

关 键 词：劳动调整成本 新凯恩斯模型 就业 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F124[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0