2001-2020年黄土高原干旱时空动态及其对气候变化的响应  

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Drought and Its Response to Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 2001 to 2020

作　　者：樊莉莉[1] 耿斌[1] 王吉林 陈杰[3] FAN Lili;GENG Bin;WANG Jilin;CHEN Jie(Shijiazhuang Vocational Technology Institute,Shijiazhuang 050081,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄职业技术学院,石家庄050081 [2]黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003 [3]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第6期183-191,共9页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“长江流域洪水对气候变化的热动力学响应机理及迁移路径研究”(52009091)。

摘　　要：为实现对黄土高原区域范围内旱情动态监测,基于MODIS NDVI和LST数据计算了温度植被干旱指数(Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index,TVDI),并基于TVDI时序数据探究了黄土高原2001—2020年TVDI时空动态、未来持续状态及降水、气温对TVDI的影响。结果表明:(1)20 a间黄土高原TVDI以0.0002/a的速率增加,2005年、2007年大范围呈现重旱。春季TVDI增加速率小(增长速率=0.0002/a,R^(2)=0.0003),夏季TVDI的增加速率为0.0012/a,秋季TVDI的增加速率最大(增长速率=0.0044/a,R^(2)=0.2836),冬季TVDI呈减小趋势。(2)春、夏两季将来一段时间内黄土高原大部分区域TVDI将呈减小趋势,秋季TVDI在将来一段时间内大部分像元数将呈变小趋势,将来一段时间冬季TVDI持续增加,尤在陕西中部地区的这种趋势更为明显。(3)除夏季TVDI与降水以正相关性为主外,其他三季均以负相关为主。春、冬季气温与TVDI以负相关为主;夏、秋季以正相关性为主。综上,黄土高原未来一段时间内干旱程度可能会有所减小,但不同季节的干旱差异性较大,因此未来黄土高原生态恢复工程应综合考虑当地的水资源实现生态可持续发展。To realise the dynamic and continuous monitoring of drought in the Loess Plateau region,based on the Temperature Vegetation Drought Index(TVDI),the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of TVDI in the Loess Plateau from 2001 to 2020 and the influence of precipitation and temperature on the change of TVDI were studied.The results showed that:(1)TVDI increased at a rate of 0.0002/a in 20 years,and severe drought occurred in 2005 and 2007.The increase rate of TVDI is relatively low in spring(growth rate=0.0002/a,R^(2)=0.0003),the increase rate of TVDI is 0.0012/a in summer,the increase rate of TVDI is the greatest in the autumn(growth rate=0.0044/a,R^(2)=0.2836),and the increase rate of TVDI is decreasing in the winter.(2)In the spring and summer,TVDI will decrease in most areas of the Loess Plateau in the future.In autumn,TVDI will decrease in most places.In winter,TVDI will continue to increase in the future,especially in central Shaanxi.(3)The relationship between TVDI and precipitation in spring,autumn and winter is mainly a negative correlation,and the correlation coefficient is mainly between-0.5 and 0.There is a positive correlation between TVDI and precipitation in summer.In spring and winter,the temperature is negatively correlated with TVDI,that is,the temperature increases,while the TVDI decreases in summer.There is a positive correlation between TVDI and temperature in summer and autumn.The drought degree of the Loess Plateau may decrease in the future,but the drought varies greatly in different seasons.Therefore,the future ecological restoration project of the Loess Plateau should comprehensively consider the local water resources to achieve ecological sustainable development.

关 键 词：TVDI 时空动态 气温 降水 黄土高原 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S165[农业科学—农业气象学]