2008-2019年中国5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率分析  

Mortality of drowning and road traffic injury among children aged 5-14 in China from 2008 to 2019

作　　者：郑健辉 冯国双[2,3] 吴息凤 于石成 王琦琦[4] Zheng Jianhui;Feng Guoshuang;Wu Xifeng;Yu Shicheng;Wang Qiqi(Department of Big Data in Health Science,School of Public Health,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Big Data Center,National Center for Children′s Health/Beijing Children's Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100045,China;Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-Based Precision Medicine,Beihang University&Capital Medical University,Beijing 100083,China;Office of Epidemiology,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(China CDC),Beijing 102206,China;Center of Clinical Big Data and Analytics,Second Affiliated Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,Hangzhou 310058,China;The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共卫生学院数据健康科学系,杭州310058 [2]国家儿童医学中心首都医科大学附属北京儿童医院大数据中心,北京100045 [3]北京航空航天大学&首都医科大学北京大数据精准医疗高精尖创新中心,北京100083 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室,北京102206 [5]浙江大学医学院附属第二医院临床大数据与统计中心,杭州310058 [6]浙江省智能预防医学重点实验室,杭州310058

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2022年第9期1244-1250,共7页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：北航-首医大数据精准医疗高精尖创新中心计划(BHME-201901);北京市医院管理中心儿科学科协同发展中心专项(XTCX201809)。

摘　　要：目的分析2008-2019年中国5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率的轨迹和变化趋势。方法利用2008-2019年全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据集, 按区域、城乡、性别、年龄分组, 应用轨迹模型拟合5~14岁儿童溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率变化的轨迹模型。结果溺水和道路交通伤害死亡率变化趋势呈现相似的下降趋势。溺水模型中, 5~14岁的东、中和西部农村以及西部城市男孩均属于死亡率最高的组别;5~9岁东部城市男孩、西部城乡女孩、10~14岁东中部城市男孩以及西部城市女孩属于中等死亡率趋势组别;其余组合属于低死亡率趋势组别。道路交通伤害模型中, 5~9岁西部城市男孩, 东、中和西部农村男孩和西部农村女孩、10~14岁中西部农村男孩以及西部城市男孩属于高死亡率趋势组别;5~9岁、10~14岁的东部城市女孩属于低死亡率趋势组别;其余组合死亡率中等。结论中国儿童溺水和道路交通伤害的死亡率随年份变化的轨迹存在不同组别分类, 识别中国儿童伤害死亡率随年代变化的轨迹, 有助于开展更具有针对性的预防工作。Objective To analyze the trajectory of drowning and road traffic injury mortality among children aged 5-14 years in China from 2008 to 2019.Methods Mortality data of unintentional injuries were from the Mortality Surveillance Data Set of National Disease Surveillance System from 2009 to 2018 and grouped by regions,urban and rural areas,genders,and age groups.The trajectory model was used to analyze the trend of drowning and road traffic injury mortality with years.Results The mortality of drowning and road traffic injury showed a similar trend.In the trajectory model of drowning mortality,east,middle and west rural boys and western urban boys of all ages belonged to the high mortality group.The moderate mortality group included eastern urban boys and western girls aged 5-9 years and also contained eastern and middle urban boys and western urban girls aged 10-14 years.The other combinations belonged to the low mortality group.In the trajectory model of road traffic injury mortality,western urban boys,all rural boys and western rural girls aged 5-9 years,middle and western rural boys and western urban boys aged 10-14 years belonged to the high mortality group.Eastern urban girls aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years belonged to the low mortality group.The other combinations belonged to the moderate mortality group.Conclusion There are different groups in the trajectory model of drowning and road traffic injury mortality among children in China.Identifying the trajectory of injury mortality is helpful to carry out more targeted prevention in China.

关 键 词：溺水 道路交通伤害 死亡率 轨迹模型 儿童 

分 类 号：R179[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]