2006-2020年辽宁省10~19岁青少年梅毒和淋病发病趋势的Joinpoint回归分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis of the incidence trend of syphilis and gonorrhea among adolescents aged 10-19 in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2020

作　　者：马宁[1] 孙笠翔[1] 康续 王莉[1] Ma Ning;Sun Lixiang;Kang Xu;Wang Li(Institute of AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Diseases Control and Prevention,Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenyang 110005,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病与性传播疾病预防控制所,沈阳110005

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2022年第9期1323-1326,共4页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：以中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统中报告的2006-2020年辽宁省梅毒和淋病数据, 采用Joinpoint回归对2006-2020年辽宁省10~19岁青少年梅毒和淋病发病率的趋势进行分析。2006-2020年辽宁省共报告10~19岁青少年梅毒患者7 721例, 发病率为0.90/10万~22.13/10万, 女性梅毒发病率高于男性, Ⅰ期和Ⅱ期梅毒感染青少年占72.6%;淋病患者2 726例, 发病率为1.29/10万~10.74/10万, 男性淋病发病率高于女性。梅毒发病率总体以2012年为拐点, 2006-2012年青少年梅毒发病率年均增长幅度为67.30%(P<0.001), 2012-2020年青少年梅毒发病率年均增长幅度为-0.02%(P=0.994);淋病发病率总体以2015年为拐点, 2006-2015年青少年淋病发病率年均增长幅度为23.95%(P<0.001), 2015-2020年青少年淋病发病率年均增长幅度为4.06%(P=0.492)。整体而言, 2006-2020年辽宁省10~19岁青少年中梅毒和淋病的发病率上升趋于缓慢, 一级和二级预防策略在降低性病传播风险中明显有效。Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of syphilis and gonorrhea incidence rate among 10-19 year old adolescents in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2020.The syphilis and gonorrhea data in Liaoning Province were reported in the infectious disease monitoring system of China′s disease prevention and control information system.From 2006 to 2020,a total of 7721 cases of syphilis in 10-19 year old adolescents were reported in Liaoning Province,with an incidence rate about 0.90/100000-22.13/100000.The incidence rate of syphilis in women was higher than that in men.Adolescents infected with stageⅠand stageⅡsyphilis accounted for 72.6%.There were 2726 patients with gonorrhea,with an incidence rate about 1.29/100000-10.74/100000.The incidence rate of gonorrhea in men was higher than that in women.Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the incidence of syphilis generally took 2012 as the inflection point.From 2006 to 2012,the average annual growth rate of syphilis incidence rate among adolescents was 67.30%(P<0.001).The average annual growth rate of syphilis incidence rate in adolescents from 2012 to 2020 was-0.02%(P=0.994).The overall incidence of gonorrhea incidence rate took 2015 as the inflection point.From 2006 to 2015,the average annual growth rate of juvenile gonorrhea incidence rate was 23.95%(P<0.001).The average annual growth rate of gonorrhea incidence rate in adolescents from 2015 to 2020 was 4.06%(P=0.492).Overall,from 2006 to 2020,the incidence rate of syphilis and gonorrhea among 10-19 year old adolescents in Liaoning Province increased slowly.The primary and secondary prevention strategies were significantly effective in reducing the risk of sexually transmitted diseases.

关 键 词：梅毒 淋病 年度变化百分比 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学] R759.2[医药卫生—临床医学]