Typhoon Track,Intensity,and Structure:From Theory to Prediction  

作　　者：Zhe-Min TAN Lili LEI Yuqing WANG Yinglong XU Yi ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather,Ministry of Education,and School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210063,China [2]International Pacific Research Center,and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu,Hawaii 96822,USA [3]National Meteorological Center of CMA,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2022年第11期1789-1799,共11页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1501600 and 2017YFC1501601)。

摘　　要：To improve understanding of essential aspects that influence forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs),the National Key Research and Development Program,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China conducted a five-year project titled“Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure”(KPPT).Through this project,new understandings of TC intensification,including outer rainbanddriven secondary eyewall formation and the roles of boundary layer dynamics and vertical wind shear,and improvements to TC data assimilation with integrated algorithms and adaptive localizations are achieved.To promote a breakthrough in TC intensity and structure forecasting,a new paradigm for TC evolution dynamics(i.e.,the correlations,interactions,and error propagation among the triangle of TC track,intensity,and structure)is proposed;and an era of dynamic-constrained,big-data driven,and strongly coupled data assimilation at the subkilometer scale and seamless prediction is expected.

关 键 词：TYPHOONS TRACK INTENSITY STRUCTURE theories predictions 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]