A Causality-guided Statistical Approach for Modeling Extreme Mei-yu Rainfall Based on Known Large-scale Modes——A Pilot Study  

作　　者：Kelvin S.NG Gregor C.LECKEBUSCH Kevin I.HODGES 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography,Earth and Environmental Sciences,University of Birmingham,Birmingham B152TT,United Kingdom [2]Department of Meteorology and NCAS,University of Reading,Reading RG66BB,United Kingdom

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2022年第11期1925-1940,共16页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund。

摘　　要：Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR)can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China.While significant improvements have been made in climate models,they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g.,MYR).Yet,large-scale climate modes(LSCMs)are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs,it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs.These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models.In this pilot study,it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs.The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature.The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature.The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed.The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies.

关 键 词：extreme rainfall Mei-yu front causality-guided approach large-scale climate modes 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]