基于系统动力学和Cobb-Douglas生产函数的高铁经济效应研究  

Research on Economic Effects of High-speed Rail Based on System Dynamics and Cobb-Douglas Production Function

作　　者：胡婉婉 石超峰 Hu Wanwan;Shi Chaofeng(Traffic and Transportation College,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《湖北工程学院学报》2022年第5期97-104,共8页Journal of Hubei Engineering University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(16BJL121)。

摘　　要：为了测算高铁经济效应,本文从拉动效应、推动效应以及诱发效应三个维度分析高铁对上下游各行业产出、消费及经济增长的带动效应,并以重庆市2010—2020年的时间序列数据为样本,通过系统动力学方法和柯布道格拉斯生产函数,对高铁经济效应进行实证研究。结果表明,高铁投资对重庆市GDP和就业水平有正影响,尤其是对第二产业、第三产业影响显著,且高铁投资对重庆市GDP的弹性系数为2.33。研究结果不仅能为高铁投资建设提供经济考量,也为相关政府制定政策提供参考借鉴。In order to measure the economic effect of high-speed rail,this paper makes an analysis of the output of high-speed rail toupstream and downstream industries,consumption and the driving effect of economic growth from three aspects:pull effect,push effect and induced effect.Taking the time series data of Chongqing from 2010 to 2020 as samples,this paper makes an empirical study on the economic effect of high-speed rail through system dynamics method and Cobb-Douglas production function.The results have shown that high-speed rail investment has a positive effect on Chongqing’s GDP and employment levels,especially on the secondary and tertiary industries and the elasticity coefficient of high-speed rail investment to Chongqing’s GDP is 2.33.The research results can not only provide economic considerations for high-speed rail investment and construction,but also provide reference for relevant governments to make policies.

关 键 词：高铁 经济效应 系统动力学 Vensim仿真 柯布道格拉斯生产函数 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] U-9[交通运输工程]