How did women’s education and differential family planning policies shape transition to second and third births in historical China? New evidence from micro data  

作　　者：Min Qin Sabu S.Padmadas Jane Falkingham 

机构地区：[1]ESRC Centre for Population Change,Centre for Research on Ageing,School of Economic,Social and Political Sciences,University of Southampton,Highfield Campus,Southampton SO171BJ,UK [2]China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing,China [3]ESRC Centre for Population Change and China Research Centre,School of Economic,Social and Political Sciences,University of Southampton,Southampton,UK [4]Department of Social Statistics and Demography and China Research Centre,School of Economic,Social and Political Sciences,University of Southampton,Southampton,UK

出　　处：《China Population and Development Studies》2022年第1期1-33,共33页当代中国人口与发展（英文）

基　　金：support for this research was provided by the UK Economic and Social Research Council(Reference:ES/J500161/1).

摘　　要：The influence of China’s family planning policies on fertility transition is widely acknowledged in research studies.However,little is known about how improve-ments in women’s education have shaped reproductive decisions of Chinese women across different family planning regimes,particularly at micro level.This study uses retrospective pooled birth history data from five consecutive population and fam-ily planning surveys collected over the period 1982-2006 to systematically examine the interrelationship between family planning policies and women’s education,and their interactive effect on the second and third birth transitions.We hypothesize that family planning policies had a differential influence on educational groups in reduc-ing the transition to second and third births.The results from discrete time com-plementary log-log survival models provide strong evidence of differential repro-ductive behavior of education groups across time in China,and the simultaneous influence of women’s education and family planning policies in lowering risks to higher parities.The rates of progression to second and third births tend to be lower after the introduction of rigid family planning policies,and more importantly,the policy impact persisted even after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors.The increase in women’s education overall had a depressing effect on transi-tion to higher parities,and family planning policies implemented overtime have had differential effects on women from different educational groups.The findings show that both family planning policies and women’s education have been instrumental in shaping fertility behavior in China.

关 键 词：Family planning policies China Women’s education Second birth Log-log survival analysis Micro birth history data 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]