基于PCA-AHP模型的安全生产事故风险评价  

Safety Production Accident Risk Assessment Based on PCA-AHP Model

作　　者：陈国芳[1,2] 安旭 卫豪 CHEN Guofang;AN Xu;WEI Hao(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000;Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Mining Engineering,Ganzhou 341000)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院,江西赣州341000 [2]江西省矿业工程重点实验室,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《电力安全技术》2022年第9期37-42,共6页Electric Safety Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区基金项目(52064016)。

摘　　要：利用MATLAB软件构建基于PCA-AHP的评估模型,并通过安全心理学、安全行为学和事故致因等理论,建立电力系统安全生产事故综合评价指标体系。根据实际数据统计和专家评分,利用主成分分析与层次分析得出不同年度电力安全生产综合风险评价。实例表明,基于PCA-AHP构建的多指标选择决策模型和评价方法,能筛选出对电力安全生产影响较大的因素,实现对安全生产形势的预测,可在类似的电力风险评价中推广应用。An assessment model based on PCA-AHP is constructed by using MATLAB software,and a comprehensive evaluation index system of safety production accidents for power systems is established based on the theories of safety psychology,safety behavior and accident causes.According to the actual data statistics and expert ratings,the comprehensive risk assessment of power production safety in different years is obtained by using principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process.The examples show that the multi-index selection decision-making model and evaluation method constructed based on PCA-AHP is available to screen out the factors with great impact on the safety of power production,realize the prediction of the situation of safety production,and can be applied in similar power risk assessments.

关 键 词：电力系统 安全生产 主成分分析法 层次分析法 风险评价 

分 类 号：TM08[电气工程—电工理论与新技术]