超空泡鱼雷命中概率解析方法  

Analytical Method for Hitting Probability of Supercavity Torpedoes

作　　者：谢超 周景军 万亚民 宋书龙 王梦豪 XIE Chao;ZHOU Jing-jun;WAN Ya-min;SONG Shu-long;WANG Meng-hao(The 705 Research Institute,China State Shipbuilding Corporation,Xi’an 710077,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶集团有限公司第705研究所,陕西西安710077

出　　处：《水下无人系统学报》2022年第5期656-664,共9页Journal of Unmanned Undersea Systems

基　　金：国家高层次人才特殊支持计划青年拔尖人才(W03070206).

摘　　要：建立超空泡鱼雷命中概率的解析模型,是明确鱼雷射击过程中各项误差源影响规律的有效途径。文中针对超空泡鱼雷直航攻击过程,考虑平台探测误差和鱼雷航行误差的影响,建立了鱼雷脱靶量散布模型。同时考虑目标水线面对命中概率的影响,建立了目标命中范围模型,并且通过理论分析提出将目标运动误差统一到平台探测误差上,既能保证计算准确度,还可有效避免目标二维散布带来的建模困难问题。在此基础上,建立了超空泡鱼雷命中概率解析模型,通过与统计方法的对比,验证了解析模型的计算准确性。此外,文中还通过灵敏度分析,明确了初始视线角的探测误差和鱼雷航向误差是对命中概率影响最大的误差源,可为超空泡鱼雷作战效能的提升提供参考。Formulating an analytical model for the hitting probability of supercavity torpedoes is an effective approach to clarify the influence of errors in the attack process. This study establishes a distribution model of the torpedo miss distance during the straight attack of supercavity torpedoes by considering the influence of platform detection and torpedo navigation errors. Simultaneously, considering the influence of the target waterline on the hitting probability, the hitting range model of a target is established, and based on theoretical analysis, this paper proposes unifying the target navigation and platform detection errors, which can ensure the calculation accuracy and effectively avoid modeling difficulties caused by the twodimensional distribution of the target location. Based on this, an analytical model for the hitting probability of a supercavity torpedo is established, and the computational accuracy of the analytical model is verified by comparing it with a statistical method. A sensitivity analysis is conducted, and the results clarify that the errors with the greatest impact on the hitting probability are the detection errors of the initial line of a sight angle and the torpedo course errors, providing a reference for improving the operational effectiveness of supercavity torpedoes.

关 键 词：超空泡鱼雷 命中概率 解析方法 误差灵敏度 

分 类 号：TJ630.1[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] TJ015