突发事件下城轨网络系统内客流分配方法  

Method of Passenger Flow Distribution in Urban Rail Network System in Emergency

作　　者：闫科维 朱志国[1] 马驷[1,2] YAN Kewei;ZHU Zhiguo;MA Si(Southwest Jiaotong University,Transportation and Logistics College,Chengdu 611756,China;Chengdu Rail Transit Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都611756 [2]成都轨道交通集团有限公司,成都610081

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第10期78-83,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：随着各大城市迈入城市轨道交通网络化运营阶段,针对城轨网络中突发事件的应急处理成为不可或缺的研究方向。本文分析乘客在突发事件下的路径选择影响因素,考虑乘客决策时的有限理性,在Logit模型的推导基础上引入累计前景理论建立突发事件下城轨网络系统内客流分配方法。通过对基础数据处理,整理OD量表,根据模型计算突发事件下路径比率变化,计算线网各线路断面、换乘等客流指标。本文以成都地铁7号线九里堤-北站西二路早高峰时段发生区间中断事件作为案例,计算得到:路径选择比率发生明显变化,各路径选择比率分别由86.9%、1.68%和11.3%变化为0%、12.84%和87.16%。客流指标计算结果表明本文提出的突发事件下城轨网络系统内客流分配方法具有可行性和参考价值。With the major cities entering the operation stage of urban rail transit network,emergency treatment of emergencies in urban rail network has become an indispensable research direction.This paper analyzes the influencing factors of passengers’route choice under the emergency,considers the bounded rationality of passengers’decision,and introduces the cumulative prospect theory on the basis of Logit model to establish the passenger flow distribution method in the emergency metro network system.Through the processing of basic data,the OD scale was sorted out.According to the model,the change of path ratio under emergencies was calculated,and the passenger flow indicators such as the section of each line and transfer in the line network were calculated.In this paper,the interval interruption event occurred in the morning rush hour of Jiulidi-North Station West 2nd Road of Chengdu Metro Line 7 was taken as a case,and the calculation results showed that the path selection ratio changed significantly,and the path selection ratio changed from 86.9%,1.68%and 11.3%to 0%,12.84%and 87.16%,respectively.The passenger flow index calculation results show that the passenger flow distribution method proposed in this paper is feasible and valuable for reference.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通网络 突发事件 有限理性 LOGIT模型 累计前景理论 

分 类 号：U239[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]