基于既有线网的新线开通分布交通量预测研究  

Prediction of Distributed Traffic Volume of New Lines to Be Opened Based on Existing Cable Networks

作　　者：郑康康 朱志国[1] 崔林琦 黄卓 ZHENG Kangkang;ZHU Zhiguo;CUI Linqi;HUANG Zhuo(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第10期90-95,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：为了提升城市轨道交通客流预测的精准度,为日常运营准确的数据支撑,需要对现有的客流预测方法进行调整与改进,以便适应复杂多变的现实场景。本文基于四阶段法这一经典的客流预测方法,结合城市轨道交通线网发展进程,提出了三种分布交通量的分类,并给出各异的基础数据参考方案和具体分布交通量预测办法。以成都地铁6、8、9、17和18号线的新线开通客流预测为案例,通过预测数据与实际运营数据的对比,对改进后预测方法进行验证。案例结果表明调整后的分布交通量预测方法更加贴合实际情况,对于提高客流预测精准度具有较高的参考价值。In order to improve the accuracy of urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting and provide accurate data support for daily operations,it is necessary to adjust and improve the existing passenger flow forecasting methods to adapt to complex and changeable real-world scenarios.Based on the four-stage method,a classic passenger flow forecasting method,this paper proposes three classifications of distributed traffic volume combined with the development process of urban rail transit network,and provides various basic data reference schemes and specific distribution traffic volume forecasting methods.This article takes the passenger flow forecast for the opening of new lines of Chengdu Metro Line 6,8,9,17 and 18 as a case,and verifies the improved forecasting method by comparing the forecast data with the actual operating data.The results show that the adjusted distributed traffic volume forecasting method can be more in line with the actual situation,and has a higher reference value for improving the accuracy of passenger flow forecasting.

关 键 词：客流预测 四阶段法 城市轨道交通 交通分布 重力模型法 

分 类 号：U239[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]