基于AFC数据的地铁乘客候车时间估计方法  

Estimation of Passenger Waiting Time in Metro Based on AFC Data

作　　者：刘奕苁 LIU Yicong(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都611756

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第10期96-102,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：考虑因拥挤引发的留乘现象对候车时间的影响,本文依据自动售检票数据(Automatic Fare Collection,AFC)和列车运行图的关系,提出基于乘客出行行程的候车时间估计方法,以估计进站及换乘候车时间。分析了走行时间、留乘次数、乘坐列车等与候车时间关系,以无换乘乘客和有换乘乘客数据分别建立了进站候车时间和换乘候车时间模型;利用现有研究成果估计了进出站走行分布和留乘概率;通过构造换乘乘客行程的极大似然函数估计换乘走行方法。以成都地铁作为案例分析求解,结果表明:仿真旅行时间与真实旅行时间对比,验证了模型建立的正确性,否定了“乘客候车时间为列车发车间隔时间一半”的假设。Considering the impact of denied boarding caused by congestion on the waiting time,this paper proposes a method of estimating entry waiting time and transfer waiting time based on passenger itinerary with the relationship between Automatic Fare Collection(AFC)and train operation diagrams.Firstly,the relationship among walking time,denied boarding times,trains to boarding and waiting time etc.is analyzed,and non-transfer and transfer passenger data are used to establish entry waiting time and transfer waiting time,respectively.Secondly,the distribution of access and egress time and denied boarding probability is estimated using existed research.Thirdly,based on the itinerary of transfer passengers,a method for estimating transfer walking time distribution is proposed.Finally,by using a case study of Chengdu Metro,the comparison between simulated travel time and real travel time verifies correctness of the model.Consequently,assumption that“passenger waiting time is the half of headway time”is rejected.

关 键 词：城市交通 候车时间 极大似然估计 出行行程 换乘 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]