劳动力供给与结构性就业矛盾:特征、冲击与纾解  

Labor Supply and Structural Employment Contradiction:Characteristics, Impact and Relief

作　　者：郭贝贝 Guo Beibei(School of Marxism,Tianjin Party School of CPC,Tianjin 300191,China)

机构地区：[1]中共天津市委党校马克思主义学院,天津300191

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2022年第12期73-80,共8页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划青年项目《驱动实体经济发展的金融结构优化路径研究——以天津市为例》(TJLJ21-004);研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目《“双循环”背景下中国经济安全风险预警与防控机制研究》(21ZDA115)。

摘　　要：“十四五”时期,结构性就业矛盾更加突出,成为就业领域的主要矛盾。基于结构性就业矛盾的内涵,从劳动力特征入手,剖析了当前我国就业状况的基本特征,研究发现:我国潜在就业规模在减少,就业质量进一步提升;同时,城乡就业格局发生逆转,城镇就业压力凸显,且产业间就业分化不断加剧。从形成根源来看,技术进步与产业变革对劳动力供给提出了更高要求,在创造更多高要求就业需求的同时,也引发对低要求就业的劳动替代冲击。在城镇结构性就业压力下,受到劳动冲击的群体主要集中于高校毕业生、农民工和因“智能替代”而失业的技术工人。为实现更加充分更高质量的就业目标,关键在于破解劳动力供需不匹配的结构性矛盾,需求端要增强“三新”经济作为就业“蓄水池”的韧性,供给端要推动现代教育体系建设以提升人力资本水平,匹配端要加快劳动力统一大市场建设以保障要素流动。During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, structural employment contradiction became more prominent and became a major problem in employment. Based on the connotation of structural employment contradiction, and starting from the characteristics of labor force, this paper analyzes the basic characteristics of the current employment situation in China. The results show that the total scale of potential employment is decreasing, but the quality of employment is improving. At the same time, the pattern of urban and rural employment has also reversed, the urban employment pressure is prominent, and the employment differentiation between industries is increasing. From the perspective of the root cause, technological progress and industrial reform have put forward higher requirements for labor supply. While creating more employments of high demand, it also causes labor substitution impact on low demand employment. Under the pressure of urban structural employment, the groups affected by labor shock are mainly college graduates, migrant workers and skilled workers who have lost their jobs due to “intelligent substitution”. To achieve fuller and higher-quality employment, the key lies in solving the structural contradiction of mismatch between supply and demand of labor force. The demand side should make the economy more resilient as a reservoir of employment on the demand side, the supply side should promote the construction of modern education system to improve human capital level. The matching end should accelerate the construction of a unified labor market to ensure the flow of factors.

关 键 词：结构性就业 劳动力供给 人力资本 劳动冲击 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]